http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/061105/opi_18968948.shtml


Last modified Fri., June 10, 2005 - 11:42 PM
Originally created Saturday, June 11, 2005

Terrorism understood



On the day the nation was attacked by terrorists, Sept. 11, 2001, many
drew comparisons with the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7,
1941. 

In a new book, Preventing Surprise Attacks, author Richard Posner
writes that there are several important similarities to those attacks.
Understanding those traits are important to heading off future attacks. 
The attacker is too weak to use conventional military means. 
The victim of the attack, realizing the weakness of the attacker,
fails to properly respect and anticipate the attack. 

The victim fails to understand the intentions and capabilities of the
attacker. The victim projects his own motives, erroneously, on the
attacker. 

Warning signs are interpreted through the overall prism of these
erroneous assumptions. 
False alarms or deception deceive the victim, giving a false sense of
security. 
The victim is in a state of denial about the forms of attack that
might succeed. 

Intelligence officers who might be able to sound the alarm are
reluctant to do so, feeling pressured to follow the conventional wisdom. 
Posner contends that simply changing organizational structures will
not solve these issues. An entirely new way of thinking might be
needed. Thus, he says that the creation of an entirely new domestic
intelligence agency, like Britain's MI-5, deserved more serious
consideration than it was given by the 9/11 commission. 
He argues that a new centralized organization is probably the wrong
way to go. Decentralization makes more sense. 

Actually, decentralized units that communicate across organiza- tional
lines was one of the key recommendations of the 9/11 commission. 
What are called "skunk works" in some corporations, small groups of
innovators, probably make more sense when dealing with so-called
asymmetric threats of terrorists. 

We're confident that the United States will adjust to this new threat
in the typically creative American way. 





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