Please find below an example of UPI's continuing coverage of the war on
terrorism and al-Qaida, published earlier this week, before yesterday's
suicide bombing in Peshawar. A shorter version appeared on A19 of the
Washington Times Wednesday. The full-length version is below and you may
link to it on the Web here:

http://www.upi.com/inc/view.php?StoryID=20061106-070738-8557r

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Shaun Waterman
UPI Homeland and National Security Editor
E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Tel: 202 898 8081
Web-page: http://homeland-hack.blogspot.com/

Analysis: Musharraf border peace strategy in tatters
By SHAUN WATERMAN
UPI Homeland and National Security Editor

WASHINGTON, Nov. 7 (UPI) -- Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's
strategy of cutting peace deals with local leaders on his country's
border with Afghanistan lies in tatters, after the strike last week on a
religious school in the area, and charges that a terror plot was hatched
there. 

"It is in tatters, but there is no alternative," Pakistani analyst
Husain Haqqani told United Press International Monday. Musharraf adopted
the strategy under pressure from army leaders who saw the effort to
pacify the notoriously lawless and inaccessible border region by
military force alone as doomed. 

The architect of the strategy, retired Gen. Ali Muhammad Jan Orakzai,
the governor of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, has threatened
to resign, and Musharraf will hold a meeting with senior army staff
Tuesday to allay their fears about the deal's collapse, according to
local reports. 

Over the weekend, the Dawn newspaper -- citing an unnamed senior
investigator -- reported that the leader of a shadowy Uzbek extremist
splinter group, the Islamic Jihad Group, had given the go-ahead for a
planned series of attacks in Islamabad last month. 

The attacks were foiled when a number of artillery shells, wired to be
detonated by mobile phones, were found by authorities less than a mile
from the parliament building and Musharraf's residence, on Oct. 5. 

The Uzbek was named by Dawn as Nadzhmiddin Kamilidinovich Janov. The
enwspaper said he used the aliases Yakhyo and Commander Ahmad and was
based in Mir Ali, in North Waziristan -- one of the seven
semi-autonomous tribal agencies that lie on Pakistan's lawless and
inaccessible border with Afghanistan. Dawn said Janov was the leader of
a splinter from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. 

The Islamic Jihad Group has been designated a terror group by the U.S.
government, but little is known about it. The group claimed
responsibility for several attacks in Uzbekistan in April 2004, but has
not been heard from since. 

Eleven people have been charged in the plot and Dawn said interrogations
had revealed the link to Janov. "While the fingers were in Islamabad,
the tail was in Mir Ali," the anonymous investigator told the newspaper.


"If this report is true," Haqqani said, "it would be a very serious
breach of the agreement" signed between Pakistani authorities and local
leaders in the agency Sept. 5. 

Under the agreement, the leaders, who included prominent members of the
local Taliban shura or council and the heads of tribal militias, were
supposed to expel any foreign militants who did not adopt what the deal
called "a peaceable life," and prevent cross-border attacks against NATO
and U.S. troops in Afghanistan. 

But U.S. military officials said that attacks in the Khost province of
Afghanistan had increased since the deal was signed, and many analysts
have been skeptical of the deal. 

The Dawn report comes days after a strike Oct. 30, widely believed to
have been carried out by a U.S. predator drone, killed more than 80
people, including several children, at a religious school or madrassa in
the Bajaur agency, another of the tribal areas. 

The strike destroyed a deal scheduled to be inked in Bajaur that day
with local leaders, the latest in what was planned as series of such
agreements building on the North Waziristan accord, and an earlier deal
with militants in South Waziristan. One of the leaders who was due to
sign the Bajaur deal narrowly escaped death in the attack. 

Former Indian intelligence official B. Raman reported that Orakzai had
threatened to resign last week because he was angry at being blindsided
by the strike. 

Newsweek reported Sunday that at least six middle-ranking Pakistani Army
officers have been court-martialed for refusing orders to fight in the
area, and the pressure from the military that led Musharraf to adopt the
strategy in the first place has not abated. 

But the Bajaur strike suggests that the United States has lost faith in
the approach, and the allegations in the Dawn report, if they are borne
out, show that the strategy has failed to stop militants planning
operations even very close to home. 

"There are only rocks and hard places for Musharraf now," said Haqqani.

(c) Copyright 2006 United Press International, Inc. All Rights Reserved


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