[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: >Rudy G in a speech to the National Press Club (NPR broadcast on 6/1/97, 8 pm >WNYC) claimed that the Unemployment Rate was declining because ex-welfare >recipients were entering the workforce. > >I suspect that people on welfare are not included in the Census HH survey >(probably due to lack of a phone). Has anyone checked this out. What Il Duce said is common Wall Street chatter too. LF growth has picked up - 2.0% over the last 6 months, vs. 1.4% in the previous 6 - but half of the increase is accounted for by a pickup in population growth (1.0% vs. 1.3%). I called the BLS to ask about the coverage issue. The economist-on-call said that he doubted that much of the LF acceleration was because of welfare reform; it's too early, and the numbers would be too small. His feeling was that it was the strong labor market that was prompting the LF growth. He also said that the first, and usually the fifth, CPS interview is done in person. Others are done by phone if the household has a phone; if not, they followups are done in person too. Doug
