BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, JULY 30, 1997: RELEASED TODAY: Most state unemployment rates showed little change in June, as 44 states and the District of Columbia recorded shifts of 0.3 percentage point or less from May. The national jobless rate increased to 5.0 percent over the month. Nonfarm payroll employment rose in 36 states and the District of Columbia in June. Total compensation costs paid by private industry employers climbed 2.9 percent over the year ended in June as measured by the Employment Cost Index, BLS reports. The latest ECI data show an unusually stable picture of wage and benefit trends, says James Houff, BLS senior economist. "It's probably the flattest report we've ever had," he said (Daily Labor Report, page D-1). __John M. Berry, writing in The Washington Post (page D8), says that the cost of most workers' pay and benefits rose only moderately over the past year, even though employers have had to scramble to find workers in many parts of the country because of tight labor markets. But a chief economist of the Bank Boston is quoted as saying "I have to believe, given the tightness of labor markets, that the best news (on labor costs) is behind us." __Employee compensation costs rose slightly this spring because of an increase in benefits, but the gain posed no inflationary threat, says Robert D. Hershey, Jr., writing in The New York Times (page D1). On page D6, a Bloomberg News article printed by The Times says that Treasury prices extended their rally yesterday after reports showed a muted increase in labor costs. __Labor costs remained tame in the second quarter, rising 0.8 after a scant 0.6 percent gain in the first quarter, despite the tightest labor market in more than 2 decades (The Wall Street Journal, page A6). The Clinton Administration took a first step toward establishing a government-wide standard of confidentiality by issuing an administrative order under the Paperwork Reduction Act, an OMB official announces at a House hearing. The importance of establishing government-wide confidentiality standards for statistical information is to ensure the privacy and confidentiality of people and organizations who furnish data for federal statistical programs, according to the "Federal Register". Once the confidentiality standards are established and legislation passed that will remove barriers currently in place, agencies will be better able to share statistical data. Some members of Congress also have pushed for consolidating statistical agencies. Introduced last Congress, HR 2521 would have consolidated into one agency the Census Bureau, BLS, and BEA (Daily Labor Report, page A-9). Workplace injuries and illnesses cost an estimated $172 billion each year and result in approximately 6,500 deaths from injury and more than 60,000 deaths from disease, according to "Occupational Injury and Illness in the United States: Estimates of Costs, Morbidity and Mortality," which appeared in a journal of the American Medical Association called the "Archives of Internal Medicine". The study was authored by J. Paul Leigh, an economist with San Jose State University, and researchers from Stanford University Medical Center and Mount Sinai School of Medicine. The study, described as the first of its kind, also said workers suffer an estimated 13.2 million nonfatal injuries and 862,200 illnesses annually. According to the study, actual numbers may be much higher due to a variety of reasons, including "undercounted" occupational injuries and illnesses (Daily Labor Report, page A-6). After two monthly increases, the Consumer Confidence Index dropped nearly 3 points in July to 126.5 percent of its 1985 base, the Conference Board reports. Consumers remain optimistic about the job market, with the proportion saying there will be fewer jobs remaining low in July at 12.3 percent. Buying plans for big ticket items continued at about the same rate (Daily Labor Report, page A-1). __Lynn Franco, associate director of the Consumer Research Center, commenting on the Consumer Confidence data, said the decline was not a sign the economy is in any trouble. "Despite the slight decline in consumer confidence this month, both the present situation and expectations indexes are at historically high levels," she said. "The latest readings continue to signal healthy economic growth ahead." (The Washington Post, page D8). __Bloomberg News, as quoted in The New York Times (page D2), says that Americans' confidence in the economy fell unexpectedly this month, but remained close enough to a 28-year high to suggest that consumer spending might accelerate. __The Wall Street Journal (page A6) includes consumer confidence data in its article on the employment cost index, and shows the consumer confidence index 1994 to the present on a page 1 graph. A National Association of Business Economists survey points to continuing strength in the economy, with gains in hiring, business investment, and consumer demand. Economists who were surveyed said that demand for their firms' products and services strengthened in the second quarter, reversing a slight slowdown in the first quarter. Two-thirds believe that demand will pick up over the next 6 months. Not one of the respondents forecast significantly lower volume, "pointing to continued good growth in the economy," the association said. In the second quarter of this year, the association's employment index rose to a "very strong" 23.7 level, surpassed only during the second quarter of 1984 when it reached 27.6. When asked about hiring plans over the next 6 months, 42 percent of those surveyed said they intend to increase employment, up from 33 percent last quarter (Daily Labor Report, page A-5). __A poll published by the National Association of Business Economists shows that "price increases are increasingly difficult to realize" and that the pace of labor-cost increases "appears to have slowed" from that of the first quarter (The New York Times, page D1). German workers fear that they may soon be affected by forces set loose from freer global trade that are pushing more countries toward the American approach of working longer for less. The competitive edge that created the German miracle has eroded, leaving a sense that the good times are over (The New York Times, page 1). Illustrating the article (on page A4) is a graph that shows vacation days for employees on the job for one year. While Austrian workers get 30 days, U.S. workers get 10 days. Robert J. Samuelson, in a column on the op. ed. page of The Washington Post (A23), quotes BLS statistics to argue that, in addition to the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to keep inflation at bay, market forces have contributed to the recent period of price stability in the United States. DUE OUT TOMORROW: Mass Layoffs in May 1997
