BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, AUGUST 26, 1997 RELEASED TODAY: State unemployment rates were little changed in July, as 43 states recorded changes of 0.3 percentage point or less from June. The national jobless rate edged down to 4.8 percent in July. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 30 states and the District of Columbia over the month .... Welfare reform has triggered a dramatic increase in the number of single women with children entering the U.S. labor force, but the actual impact on the total labor force is small, a Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco economist reports. Mary Daly estimated that about 296,000 women with families who were formerly on welfare entered the labor force between August 1996 and July 1997 as a result of welfare reform. Her study draws on data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. During the 12-month period before reform, July 1995 to July 1996, the number of women maintaining families who were in the labor market increased by 2.4 percent. In contrast, between August 1996 and July 1997, "labor force growth among these women surged to 7.4 percent at an annual rate," she said ....Overall, 2.3 million individuals joined the labor force, boosting the labor force participation rate by 0.4 percentage point to 67.1 percent over the year ended in July 1997 ....After restricting BLS populations of women maintaining families to those most likely to be affected by welfare reform -- and attributing a portion of the recent labor force growth among these women to broader economic factors -- "welfare reform would be credited with three-tenths of the total four-tenths increase in labor force participation since August" 1996, Daly said. However, Daly found this assumption that welfare reform accounted for three-fourths of the rise in the participation rate "suspect" given that not all of the women maintaining families who were counted by BLS would be affected by welfare reform. About one-third of these women were not likely to be eligible for welfare benefits, and some fraction of them most likely entered the labor force because of a strong economy, she said. Assuming the welfare reform effect was 5.4 percentage points of the total 7.4 percent increase in the labor force growth of women maintaining families, Daly said "the total effect of labor force participation is estimated to be about 0.1 percentage point" ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-7). Small-business hiring heads for the roof. About 22 percent of about 1,600 responding members of the National Federation of Independent Business plan to expand employment, a third-quarter record in the NFIB survey's 25-year history. Fully 30 percent have "hard to fill" openings, also a new high, with manufacturing and construction industries leading the demand (Wall Street Journal, "Work Week," page A1)_____While a strong economy brings many good things to small businesses, it also creates a problem: Where do you find enough qualified employees? The national unemployment rate of 4.8 percent in July was the lowest in almost 24 years. And small businesses, particularly in rural communities with smaller labor pools, are finding that their biggest challenge these days isn't bringing in work orders and jobs. It is finding someone to do the work ....Small-business owners say the competition for workers has caused them to raise salaries in some cases and benefits in others. The owners have also become more flexible with work schedules and advertised the jobs over a much wider area ....In July, 29 percent of the employers responding to the NFIB's monthly survey said they were having trouble filling at least one job ....(New York Times, Aug. 24, page F11). Computer whizzes with year-2000 conversion skills are in hot demand ....In a survey of 128 large companies by Cap Gemini America, New York computer-services firm, 60 percent said they're boosting their Year-2000 (Y2K) staff. Most expect pay for Y2K experts to climb by as much as 40 percent in each of the next two years ....(Wall Street Journal, "Work Week," page A1). We know what to do, but we need skills and authority to do it. That's what many of 9,144 workers said in an attitude survey by benefits consultant Watson Wyatt Worldwide of Bethesda, Md. ....Well over 80 percent of the polled respondents said they know their employer's goals and their duties. But only 38 percent said they get needed information or regular performance feedback, and only 55 percent hold power to make decisions to satisfy customers ....Nearly 80 percent of over 2,000 employees polled by Aon Consulting Inc., Detroit human-resources adviser, recommend their company as an employer -- but 40 percent would leave for slightly higher pay (Wall Street Journal, "Work Week," page A1). Worker absenteeism fell 16 percent from 1996 in this year's survey of 451 employers by Commerce Clearing House, the first decline since 1992. Commerce, publisher of human-resources information in Chicago, credits fear of punishment and a strong work ethic. But corporate attempts to curb absenteeism by helping employees with personal problems may also contribute ....(Wall Street Journal, "Work Week," page A1).
