The following item was taken from Russia Today (www.russiatoday.com)
Aug. 31, 1998. It deals with, not just a Russia domestic matter, but rather
with the sword of Democles which has been hanging over the world for
sometime now, and on a thread which beomces weaker with each passing day.
As Lebed has said, "the Grapes of Wrath are ripening" and "when they
explode the pieces will come raining down on the West"
Oct. 7 Looms Large
By Rod Pounsett
Of all the deadlines facing acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin, and
the cabal of so-called oligarchs and other would-be power mongers currently
deliberating behind Russia's throne, one critical date is looming larger
than most: Oct. 7. This day has been chosen for a nationwide protest by
disenchanted workers angry about unpaid wages and the disintegration of
Russia's industry and public services.
While tactical management (or lack thereof) of the financial crisis is
grabbing today's headlines, the government's handling of the Oct. 7 events
could be the defining moment of this entire mess.
It could be tempting to take tough measures against the protesters,
especially if their demonstrations block vital resources, such as power
plants or food supply routes. The new administration may even try to target
some activists as examples and come down with an iron fist. But whoever is
in power on this day, or before then if demonstrations start early, would
do well to recognize the people's right to protest and resist any use of
force unless it is to protect the lives of the innocent.
Currently, most Russians are busy reorganizing what little personal
finances they have and doing what they can to prepare for an inevitably
harsh winter. And, despite constant warnings in the media leading up to the
economic crisis, many are still in shock from the enormity and impact of
developments. But the patience of ordinary people will not hold out
forever.
Eventually, the truth and all its implications will sink in for ordinary
Russians -- especially those unprotected by hoards of foreign currency
stashed away, either under the mattress or in foreign banks, and other
overseas investments. That is when the nation, both government and people,
will really be put to the test.
It was significant that Chernomyrdin's first discussions following his
nomination went were with the heads of Russia's defense and internal
security forces. One of the conditions set by Chernomyrdin before he
accepted the job of prime minister again was that he must have control over
these ministries as well as the Federal Security Service.
He apparently recognizes that the risk of public uprisings is great. With
the prisons already overcrowded and under-supplied there will not be the
option of simply arresting protesters and throwing them in jail. Therefore
the government may consider the use of force to control demonstrations.
If they choose that tack, the government may have problems finding the
muscle willing to impose such a policy. The armed forces have been on the
verge of insurrection for months because of the appalling conditions under
which they have been maintained. They have been inadequately fed -- some
units have been advised to either go hunting for game and wild mushrooms or
grow their own vegetables -- most have been unpaid for months and
accommodation for all ranks is worse than substandard.
There has even been talk of some military units , including the officer
corps, joining the trade unions during the Oct. 7 demonstrations. The chief
of the Russian Navy, Vladimir Kuroyedov, has already warned there is a
limit to his officers' patience. Most Russian officers have not had a
paycheck for more than three months. Many lower-ranking soldiers have
waited much longer.
The government may find they only have the police and internal security
forces to back up a tough line on Oct. 7. Possibly in anticipation of a
general breakdown of law and order these sectors have hitherto been
receiving pay on time. But with the current cash-flow problems increasing
daily, even this may soon change.
There are also sound economic reasons to tread carefully in dealing with
demonstrators. The West, particularly the United States, Britain and
Germany, have said Russia's only hope of outside financial aid in the
future will be if it steps up reform and does not show any signs of a
return to the hardline central control of the Soviet era. A crackdown that
in any way mirrors the bloodbaths that occurred in Georgia's Tbilisi or in
the Baltic states during their fight for independence under Gorbachev's
reign would cause outrage in the West.
The current authorities would be seriously mistaken if they believed the
West would turn a blind eye to heavy-handed use of armed forces, whether by
the police or military. Certainly not in the way they did during Yeltsin's
1993 use of the military to oust renegades from the Russian parliament. The
current situation represents an entirely different ball game.
The Russian people have a right to be angry. Their country has been
mismanaged, natural resources squandered and promises broken. Provided they
remain peaceful, their demonstrations must be seen as justifiable. Taking
up arms against their own people could turn economic malaise into an
uncontrollable uprising that could cost thousands of lives and leave Russia
in ruins for years to come.
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