At 4:40 PM 2/8/96, Mike Meeropol wrote:

>I had the pleasure of listening to Laura Tyson on NPR this afternoon.  She
>was speaking at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco.  She said something
>very revealing:
>
[...]
>Note, she never once said recession.  The reason, her whole premise in
>supporting Clinton's balanced budget plan is that the economy will grow at
>2.2% for the next two years and then 2.3% for the following 5 years.
>
>According to the Tuesday, Feb. 6 Wall St. Journal [p. A2] the OMB and CBO
>both agree on these seven years of forecasts.

To be fair (and how I hate that), the 2.2/2.3% figures are averages that
allow for recessions, but don't impose the embarrassing burden on the
forecaster of guessing exactly when they will come.

>In fact, does anyone know Laura Tyson's address in Washington??

Someone in her office used to monitor PEN-L, because I got a call from one
of her flunkeys a few years ago after saying things that they found
disparaging (i.e., that she was appointed to a non-policy post, the CEA,
rather than a cabinet post because folks like Wall Street Journal
editorialists would have raised holy hell if she had been given a policy
post). I was lectured at some length on how this was wrong because she was
present and active at all the budget-making sessions.

Doug

--

Doug Henwood
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