[PEN-L:336] BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D]

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BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1, 1998

While the broadest measures of output may not confirm it for a few more
months, the latest government and private sector reports provide
mounting evidence that the U.S. economy is at a turning point.
Forecasters expect it will weather the global economic crisis, as long
as consumers keep their cool. ... Uncertainties -- ranging from stock
market gyrations to the spread of financial problems to Latin America
and Canada -- are beginning to fray the nerves of both business
executives and consumers, according to the latest surveys.
Manufacturing has taken the biggest hit so far, with more losses
expected in computers and electronics. ... (Daily Labor Report, page
D-1).

The health of the U.S. economy was relatively unchanged in August, as
plummeting stock prices offset positive factors to produce a steady
reading in the index of leading indicators, the Conference Board says.
Most economists expect a continuation of the expansion through early
next year.  "While the August data reflected in the leading index
reflects a sharp decline in stock prices, the overall economy remains
healthy and a majority of the other nine leading indicators are
positive," said the board's director of business cycle research. ...
(Daily Report, page D-3; Wall Street Journal, page A2; New York Times,
page C7).  

After a home-buying spree in early summer, consumers settled down in
August, sending new home sales tumbling 4.4 percent from July. Sales
levels were depressed by the worst monthly drop in the South in three
years.  Hurricane Bonnie hit many states in the region during the last
week in August, possibly discouraging potential home buyers and causing
new home sales there to plunge 13.6 percent from July.  All other areas
of the country reported modest sales gains in August. ... (Wall Street
Journal, page A2; New York Times, page C7).

Hiring in the final quarter of the year will be the highest for any
fourth quarter since 1977, according to Manpower Inc.  In its Employment
Outlook Survey for the quarter, Manpower found that 29 percent of
companies would add to their work forces, 60 percent would remain at
present levels, 7 percent planned to cut back, and the remaining 4
percent did not yet know their plans.  Demand was especially strong in
wholesale and retail trade and in construction. ... (New York Times,
Sept. 27, page 10 BU).  

The International Monetary Fund issued a pessimistic report on the world
economy, especially for those of Russia and Japan. ... The Russian
economy will contract by 6 percent this year and next, and Japan will
sink into its deepest recession since the end of World War II, the IMF
predicted. ... The report also drastically scaled back estimates of how
fast other economies would grow. ... (New York Times, page
A17)_____Worldwide economic turmoil has cost millions of jobs and more
than $600 billion in output -- the equivalent of a country the size of
Canada shutting down for a year, the IMF said.  The agency also warned
that global recession can't be ruled out, especially if the U.S. economy
weakens more than expected. ... (Washington Times, page A14). 

DUE OUT TOMORROW:  The Employment Situation:  September 1998


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