This message is in MIME format. Since your mail reader does not understand this format, some or all of this message may not be legible. ------ =_NextPart_000_01BDF21A.B7E81800 BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 6, 1998 The National Association of Business Economists forecasting panel reiterates its May prediction that the economy will grow at a 2.2 percent rate in 1999. Of the 36 professional forecasters who make up the panel, only six predict that the Asian crisis will reduce U.S. growth next year by more than one percentage point. Seven predict that the Asian crisis will boost U.S. growth. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7). Business in the non-manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy continued to grow during September, according to the latest report from the National Association of Purchasing Managers. Among features of the NAPM report are: The non-manufacturing business activity index registered an increased rate of growth, indicating continued strength in the sector, and new orders grew at a higher rate in September than in August. The backlog of orders decreased. Employment grew at the same rate as in August, and supplier deliveries decelerated at a slower rate. Inventories increased slightly, and use of imports grew more slowly in September than in August. Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for materials and services decreased at a faster rate in September. ... The non-manufacturing sector includes a very wide range of activities, such as retail and wholesale trade, real estate, business services, transportation, and communications. ... The report is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions to more than 370 purchasing executives in over 62 industries. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-7)_____Business activity at non-manufacturing companies grew in September at a faster pace than in August, posting the first increase in four months. NAPM's index of non-manufacturing business activity rose to 59.0 in September after dropping to 52.0 in August. A reading above 50 is intended to mean business is expanding, while a reading below 50 means business is contracting (Washington Post, page C1). Deflation has two faces, and one of them isn't pretty, says Louis Uchitelle writing in the "Economic View" feature of The New York Times (Oct. 4, page BU5). ... Deflation means a general decline in prices. ... Deflation is not yet happening in the United States, but prices are dropping for a growing number of goods. ... The CPI index for goods alone rose by only two-tenths of a percent in the 12 months ended in August, the smallest gain in nearly 40 years. ... Deflation, unfortunately, is not limited to falling prices. It can mean falling wages, too, and it becomes painful when incomes fall faster than prices. In fact, there is a good deflation and a bad deflation, and something in between, says Uchitelle. Good deflation was the American experience from 1870 until 1896. Prices fell almost every year, but wages and profits, instead of being squeezed out, climbed. The reason was rapidly rising productivity. ... The Depression featured the classic bad deflation. A stock market crash, unexpected bankruptcies, defaults, bank runs, and bank failures dried up the credit on which any economy depends. With prices and wages falling rapidly, people and companies found themselves without enough income to repay debts. That produced more defaults, and even harder times. Something like that is happening in Asia today, and could spread to the United States. But governments today have the policy tools and knowledge to prevent this. What's more, they know how to get a stagnant economy moving again. ... DUE OUT TOMORROW: Extended Mass Layoffs in the Second Quarter of 1998 ------ =_NextPart_000_01BDF21A.B7E81800 b3NvZnQgTWFpbC5Ob3RlADEIAQWAAwAOAAAAzgcKAAcADQAvAAgAAwAtAQEggAMADgAAAM4HCgAH AA0AMAAoAAMATgEBCYABACEAAABFQkJCQkIxQkNFNUREMjExODg4RTAwMjBBRjlDMDMwOABYBwEE gAEAEQAAAEJMUyBEYWlseSBSZXBvcnQAkAUBDYAEAAIAAAACAAIAAQOQBgC0CwAAHAAAAEAAOQDg GfWAGvK9AR4AcAABAAAAEQAAAEJMUyBEYWlseSBSZXBvcnQAAAAAAgFxAAEAAAAWAAAAAb3yGn6t G7u78l3OEdKIjgAgr5wDCAAAHgAxQAEAAAANAAAAUklDSEFSRFNPTl9EAAAAAAMAGkAAAAAAHgAw cSNpBv8ACgEPAhUCpAPkBesCgwBQEwNUAgBjaArAc2V0bjIGAAbDAoMyA8UCAHDccnESIAcTAoB9 CoAIzx8J2QKACoENsQtgbmcxODAzMwr7EvIB0CBCgkwF8ERBSUxZB/AARVBPUlQsIFQoVUVTGMBZ GYBPQ4BUT0JFUiA2GYAwMTk5OAqFCoVUaOJlB7BhdGkCIAdAE9AZBBBvYwcwHGIgb2a1GHB1AJBu B5AEIEUFoHZuA3AEAHQEIAIQFTBj5mEewAuAZyAKsB4AAyD5FTBpdASQHFAHkSBAD9FMYXkfsBUx aWMdQ3T/EcAFQCIAHCAFkR6BITAD8DZsAyAJwG8H4CIhYSDUMi4SIHAEkGMJ8AVAjyByIMADoBrh OS4gGiDzHaAiUjM2IUEdkB4RHHSHHwYEkAQgd2hvIADA8mscIHVwIkMfwxmAAiD2bCEwAJB4IUYh +BzQBzC/A6AFAQCQJ8EjIhUxdSRwcCBVLlMlgCNiIgAgpR4AeAVAeWUKwWIhMD8EYBUwIfIdcR4A JDZhZ7UowW8LgHQlgQZgdgnw7ynfKu8DIAbgbx7ALHolgGYuM+AlkChEC3ApcUzzAaAFsVJlL6AA IBmACrDhL3FBLTcpJYEbLB3HJyURIlIegG4tA4F1Zv0A0HQIcR+REfAhoAWxHZG/IlIsgyKWHmEf cQpQZCHwvygAI2MsMDjzBmAFMGUG0P8EkBmAANAFoSGAH5E7kSJS/wtgIJEkoTUTHvADYSJDHE/9 Hdb5OLFpdiBAITALgA2wKcD9FTBnHrEEkDthA5ELgAUA/y2gEfA7cCTDHZEs1BmAR5H/IZA/wR+R OvgewBUwFuAtEf83tTlEPRFHoC0xB+A9YSei4wnBI5VoaWc/gAXAJMbHPIcuVCURQXVnHdAv4vUc AmIA0GsUwB+gHZFNxacFgUkEJYFFbQtQbwbA9ySCTjZMg2EHgCS0H1BQqP1NJHMocAtQCJFSwVcA MEC/CIFSsx/wIGNIgSPCcxTA5ndPFSWBSW4wQTlxV8L3SNhZEE7hdClwTSQd0Emj/wdwNSJOFS4T WRIpcU+fUKveUAUQJHAEIAqwaTtwLeHLRV9NsWcAcGl6P8Me4/8oESBRBzFG4VaSBJBHQGBC31LX I6Q4oCeCTz9yM8RFH984+kjRCkANsEbhIFeRIvL/DbAksRbgSaNHBVfBGYBWwP8RsFWSFTABkAMR TUIn4VhA/1UAWEAh8CBwDbAZgEkBAyD/PnEggRmARndkJhmAbcEAgI81Ij/DTSQFoG1tdQMA/0qy YsFnKD61K5FRsEkyHWHuZD/AI+BxcXADEDthPyN/QqEiAClxPrFXAQQgO5FxnwpQH2FiwjuRLhgz Nxhg7nBBSC1QBZB1RyFagx2A/1eRGqASIEeRURFXsjPEND/9NUtffSIdx0cHIiFnz3Rj/2JRB5FO M147ZVoKsCxRXwzPNWEy0T2TP4FmaRHgc0F/SOUlAgIQCHB1REJSQ/In/zeSR7IdkX7PRm91sTLQ iJcrkS1QH8E9gv8ZgCfgdLEj0Y2mPOBZIY5yf4+ic3GQCTryIHAhoR+RKN5XH1BO0EwBHWFQMtE1 ZexDMTYAGyxEFqIdQ0Fx/SHwdygAaEFrsk1CLrI5tPM/UAQAbicFQCFRAkBbwbVVAHkEIEwIYCuR VRGwdyBBIzA/kHcFEB9zN7UikR5VYyBWCJB3IkLm1x2CHAMH0VkFsGsZkAdzLChPIaAlgDQ1ZUJV /jU2ATPil2iS9CPgL3AeAP8gcAMgBYFXAC7BJRETkGAy/6EeK5EegC1yBUARwFbgCfDtnGlVAwBY glNuomvBiJD/mjJgM0Sxi6hjAqJxI3Efgi9oIF6zScIywGRySUNQ/klHhWMCqtMjoBTALsGJs/ct 4SlTmEEtjwGGEWrzJDf9N7UxEiCF5CKAjyNV2UyD/wDAm+Ey4WJAJRElER4ACsD9KXE0GGAtkqQe GYBxsB8B/zjQQACbwVvBpSVXAB6gWIL/O5FoQCMwH4Oj1VngBUAfQPuh9Lcndy9hcAIywE0kIEDv klFxcWBUtTB1AyAn4DBR/0jRuuO3MmWWLmO3uLjiIaD/sbMuMSuRonGq4VLBl4ZNQv8j4FGwv5lW ZbrhIgCcZTzg35hACeGatZuHJYFHv3y5gP92MTFiB4BgIQORkLFXokjg84RRPzIxOHgBcbA/0AMg +cdQOTZf6CaAIzEHQARg/zLhMDFqIS2Sp7S5g00zJlL/INFKUieBwMEdkTzgOQN2gfxlenPCeSAZ gKMxPNFTUt9ytB9QxRUgcHSgZHWiK3H/t4MEcCxARyRnKJdgIVEmo/9C5jtxP4FpcB9QAJCdkMC7 /41THsAdAJ9wAMCfYKWhBQA/lPG1AsZSIaA7YVGwbmu6cihwdB0Qa7INsWG7gP/LktayIBBxsJjF 2DNoQAMQ/0Mzi7AIkFwRKIRI8SGABUD3xRJO0GwSbiEwIpYNsKYB+asCIFcgQC0gqBZs8sqz97c2 z1U1YWWL0JGScUSAFe+FkU1RmaIR8Gx5UgPwIgD/zXGwsQhgTvC79TuCPrEhIf0NsGIe0FFDIiHQ RDthLhP/15hNQjAzEcEEgSHwB3Iv8v/B91cAKEEiAyuRpdsxkjuB/3QgW8UFoLuAS6EhUcDBPdXf puslgR3AVCF5wm5T8nYy/+pxl/GOUSijBvAhkK4RMsD9Y7VrHoBd8AmAL3E7kSFR/1oSIfEEAN0C IhGGsS4SsbP/ITDwQk7AI4E7kqWhWPEvUf9AACSRIpYEYEdAjfKyojPFJ5aNGbAaIFVUGZBPTdEZ UFJPV0ThRS1gjxT3IRAEEXuweR2QA9A3pgZg8x5hO3BRdQrAZdIdkRrpLxdPGFH7xRRRAP4gAAAA AwDxPwkEAAADAP0/5AQAAAMAJgAAAAAAAwA2AAAAAAACAUcAAQAAAC8AAABjPVVTO2E9IDtwPUJM UztsPURDUENTTUFJTDEtOTgxMDA3MTc0NzA4Wi0xNjA1AAAeADhAAQAAAA0AAABSSUNIQVJEU09O X0QAAAAAHgA5QAEAAAANAAAAUklDSEFSRFNPTl9EAAAAAEAABzBwsvOAGvK9AUAACDAAGOi3GvK9 AR4APQABAAAAAQAAAAAAAAAeAB0OAQAAABEAAABCTFMgRGFpbHkgUmVwb3J0AAAAAB4ANRABAAAA QAAAADxFMTZFRUE0Q0U5QzdEMDExOUFFNDAwNjA5NzA1Q0Q4ODhCOTU3M0BkY3Bjc21haWwxLnBz Yi5ibHMuZ292PgALACkAAAAAAAsAIwAAAAAAAwAGEIRWDQoDAAcQXAsAAAMAEBAAAAAAAwAREAAA AAAeAAgQAQAAAGUAAABCTFNEQUlMWVJFUE9SVCxUVUVTREFZLE9DVE9CRVI2LDE5OThUSEVOQVRJ T05BTEFTU09DSUFUSU9OT0ZCVVNJTkVTU0VDT05PTUlTVFNGT1JFQ0FTVElOR1BBTkVMUkVJVEVS AAAAAAIBfwABAAAAQAAAADxFMTZFRUE0Q0U5QzdEMDExOUFFNDAwNjA5NzA1Q0Q4ODhCOTU3M0Bk Y3Bjc21haWwxLnBzYi5ibHMuZ292PgAJ6Q== ------ =_NextPart_000_01BDF21A.B7E81800--
[PEN-L:427] BLS Daily Report
Richardson_D Wed, 7 Oct 1998 13:47:08 -0400boundary="---- =_NextPart_000_01BDF21A.B7E81800"