[PEN-L:4319] BLS Daily Report

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BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, MARCH 11, 1999

RELEASED TODAY:  The U.S. Import Price Index decreased 0.1 percent in
February.  The decrease followed a 0.3 percent gain in January and was
attributable to a decline in prices for both petroleum and nonpetroleum
products.  The U.S. Export Price Index was also down 0.1 percent in February
after posting no change, on average, in January. ...  

The three main U.S. data agencies are continuing to examine their security
procedures for placing economic statistics on the Internet in light of the
two inadvertent postings by BLS since November. ...  Although not the
intensive internal and external review of BLS procedures that agency and the
Labor Department have undertaken, officials at the Census Bureau and BEA say
they have reconsidered their procedures.  Officials at both Commerce
Department agencies say they are confident that they have strong enough
protocols in place to guard against the premature release of data on the
Internet. ...  BLS's internal review continues, and the Labor Department
Inspector General has not yet completed an investigation of the two
premature BLS posting.  "I'm very satisfied with the updates from BLS,"
Labor Secretary Herman tells BNA. ...  (Daniel J. Roy in Daily Labor Report,
page C-1).

U.S. employers laid off 138,161 workers in 1,278 mass layoff actions in
November, BLS reports.  The November mass layoff figures and the number of
people laid off were lower than in October, when 1,553 mass layoff actions
affected 160,830 workers.  BLS cautioned against using month-to-month
changes to suggest layoff trends, however,  because the data are not
seasonally adjusted, although there appears to be a seasonal pattern to
layoffs. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).

The very forces propelling growth in the U.S. -- the ever-increasing
prominence of the micro-processor, heightened international competition, and
widening deregulation of the economy -- have also boosted demand for highly
skilled, educated workers at the expense of those with fewer skills.  The
result:  A dramatic widening of the wage gap. ...  In today's economy,
employers continue to place a premium on education and skills.  But this
trend toward higher inequality may have just about run its course -- and
could even be about to reverse -- for three reasons.  First, continued low
unemployment rates mean that companies will have no recourse but to hire and
train less skilled workers.  Second, the supply of skilled workers is
swelling, which will hold down wage growth at the top.  And last,
information technologies are more user-friendly than before, making them
more accessible to the less-educated workers. ...  Credit for chart data is
given to BLS (Business Week, March 15, page 58).  

A $50,000 job in private industry may pay more or less depending on the city
where the job is located, according to a survey by the New York-based human
resource consulting firm William M. Mercer Inc.  Comparing a position that
pays an average of $50,000 nationally with equivalent positions in more than
200 cities, Mercer found that the pay was 20.4 percent higher in San Jose,
Calif. -- the heart of Silicon Valley -- and 16.5 percent lower in
Brownsville, Texas. ...  The higher the salary is, the less sharply it will
vary by geographic locale. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page A-3).  

Data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 10 weeks of
1999 show that the median first-year wage increase in newly negotiated
contracts equals 3 percent, and the weighted average increase for
settlements reported to date in 1999 was 2.2 percent.  The manufacturing
industry's gain was 3 percent, and its weighted average increase was 2.8
percent.  Nonmanufacturing settlements (excluding construction) show a
median increase of 3 percent, with a weighted average increase of 2.2
percent. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page D-5).

According to one ambitious ranking of the best occupations on the planet,
Web managers finished first, ahead of actuaries, hospital administrators,
and several other technology categories.  The annual best-to-worst ratings
of 250 occupations, by the "Jobs Rated Almanac," is based on six factors --
workplace environment, income, future prospects, physical demands, job
security, and stress.  The highest ranked tech occupations, including
computer systems analyst, software engineer and computer programmer, all had
high scores in the income prospects, environment, and job security
categories.  But pressure goes along with some tech work, too.  Web site
managers ranked only 52nd on the least-stressed meter.  The analysis draws
on government data on wages, length of workday, and hiring trends; the
authors also crank in their own assessments of what the 250 jobs are like.
....  (Washington Post, page E5).   

Will an economic slowdown in Europe knock out the last remaining leg
supporting U.S. companies' overseas sales?  That's a question that
economists are scrambling to answer as economic indicators pouring out of
Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom point to weaker economic
growth.  For the past 2 years, as financial and economic turmoil spread from
Asia to Latin America, Europe has been a bulwark against a collapse of
exports and profits for U.S. companies.  But now, finally succumbing to
Asia's economic problems, and lacking the dynamism that has kept the U.S.
economy charging ahead, Europe suddenly seems to be slowing faster than
economists had expected.  Last week, the 11 members of the European Monetary
Union reported inflation-adjusted  annualized growth in fourth quarter gross
domestic product of just 0.2 percent. ...  (Wall Street Journal, page A2).

Is the U.S. economy a bubble waiting to burst?  Six months ago, Fed Chairman
Greenspan warned Congress that the United States couldn't remain an oasis of
prosperity in a world economy racked by financial distress.  So far, he's
been wrong, says USA Today (page 1A).  Virtually alone among the world's top
economies, the United States is thriving.  Unemployment is low, productivity
is rising, inflation is flat, and the stock market is at a record high.
European economic growth is faltering.  Germany's economy even contracted
last quarter.  Latin America remains on the brink of disaster:  Ecuadorian
troops and police clashed with protesters Wednesday on the first day of a
2-day strike against economic austerity measures.  And Asia's once-dynamic
economies are still struggling. ...  

Y2K-bug fixers see work dive as 2000 nears. ...  Spending to fix Y2K
software bugs peaked last year, says The Wall Street Journal (page B1).
Shares of many of the consulting and services companies that feasted on Y2K
have plummeted.  Big corporations have slashed internal staff assigned to
Y2K, and a lot of freelance software consultants are hitting the streets.
Those who can't diversify face imminent obsolescence. ...      

For 18 months, Americans have shopped at an astounding pace, racing through
the malls like sprinters on steroids, says Business Week (March 15, page
29). ...  But the days of super-spending may be ending.  And believe it or
not, that would be healthy for this economy.  Less demand will head off a
rise in inflation -- and a hike in interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
....  Why should consumers become more circumspect now?  Forget job jitters.
Consumers tell the Conference Board that they still view jobs as "easy to
get."  Less euphoria may reflect Wall Street's increased volatility. ...
Consumers who believe that the days of double-digit equity gains are over
may be deciding to spend less and save more.  Already the data show some
slowing of spending. ...  But even if consumers return to counting their
income -- rather than wealth -- before they make buying decisions, spending
would increase about 3 percent this year.  That's strong enough to keep the
expansion of the economy going, but modest enough to avert cost pressures
that could lift inflation. ...  

DUE OUT TOMORROW:  Producer Price Indexes -- February 1999


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