[PEN-L:5025] BLS Daily Report

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BLS DAILY REPORT, THURSDAY, APRIL 9, 1999

RELEASED TODAY:  The U.S. Import Price Index edged up 0.1 percent in March.
An increase in imported petroleum prices more than offset a decline in
nonpetroleum import prices.  In contrast, the price index for U.S. exports
fell 0.3 percent in March, after posting a 0.2 percent decline in February.
....  

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just made an important confession, says James
C. Cooper, writing in Business Week (April 12, page 40). Based on results
from studies released March 30, the government has all but admitted for the
first time something that many economists have argued for many years:  U.S.
productivity growth is understated, especially in hard-to-measure service
industries.  The results offer the latest ammunition for those who believe
that the U.S. economy is in the middle of a technology-driven productivity
revolution that could have significant long-term impacts on growth,
inflation, and economic policy.  The heart of the research is a study by the
bureau's William Gullickson and Michael J. Harper, in which they break down
productivity growth by various industries using a concept called multifactor
productivity. ...  Based on existing data, the contribution of
nonmanufacturing industries -- mainly services -- to productivity growth was
zero from 1979 to 1996. ...  That result strains credibility.  How far off
are the results?  Associate Commissioner Edwin R. Dean will only say, "We
have not shown that the degree of underestimate is large." ...    To be
sure, the BLS research leaves many questions unanswered. ...  The best thing
to come out of this research is likely to be better productivity data, since
it identifies the key industries where the BLS will now redouble its
efforts.  In particular, Dean says that work on more accurate banking-sector
data already underway will result in better measurement for that industry by
year end. ...  

Social critics have claimed that workers are putting in far more time on the
job than they used to -- to the detriment of other aspects of their lives.
Others have disputed such claims, noting that worker surveys show that the
average workweek has hardly changed since the early 1970s, staying close to
42 hours for men and 37 hours for women.  A study in the "Review of Social
Economy" by Jerry A. Jacobs of the University of Pennsylvania and Kathleen
Gerson of New York University throws light on the issue.  While confirming
that the average workweek has not changed much in recent decades, the two
sociologists point out that significantly more people are working either
long or short weeks -- often to their dissatisfaction.  Since 1970, for
example, the share of male workers logging at least 50 hours a week on the
job has climbed from 20 percent to 25 percent, while the share of female
workers putting in similar long hours has risen from 5 percent to more than
10 percent.  The ranks of those working fewer than 30 hours a week have also
grown.  Skilled and highly educated Americans are especially likely to work
long hours, note the researchers. ...  As for those most dissatisfied with
long hours, the researchers believe much of the discontent is among
dual-earner couples -- particularly those with children. ...  (Business
Week, April 12, page 26).

Wage data compiled by the Bureau of National Affairs in the first 14 weeks
of 1999 for all newly negotiated contract settlements show that the median
first-year wage increase was 3 percent, the same as that reported in the
year-ago period, and the weighted average increase was 2.4 percent, compared
with 2.8 percent in 1998. ...  (Daily Labor Report, page D-1).

GM reported its U.S. light-vehicle sales were down 2.2 percent in March,
worse than analysts expected but not enough to keep the total industry from
hitting new monthly and quarterly records. ...  (Washington Post, page E1).

DUE OUT TOMORROW:  Producer Price Indexes -- March 1999


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