Item 1--layoffs together with increasing employment and a lower UP rate. Something in the economy seems to have changed. Could it be the lower share of manufacturing or is something else of importance out there? Dave ---------- BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1996 A growing number of Americans believe the economy is in good shape; even so, the number concerned about their own jobs has not changed significantly in the last year, says a New York Times article by Steve Lohr (Dec. 29, page A1). Their anxiety is not unfounded. A recent report by the Labor Department showed a high rate of layoffs from 1993 to 1995, even as unemployment was extremely low with millions more jobs created than were wiped out. An analysis by The New York Times of the Labor Department figures found that the number of people laid off in 1995 rose to nearly the peak reached in 1992, right after the last recession ....Layoffs have become a durable fixture of today's economy, occurring steadily in good times and bad ....In a series last March, the Times made projections of the layoff rate for 1994 and 1995 because the government numbers for those years had not been tabulated. The Times projections were criticized by some economists and the administration as little more than guesses and probably too high. In fact, the latest Labor Department numbers show the Times projections were slightly lower than the official figures ....Many people laid off do suffer a loss in income, sometimes a sharp drop, notes Thomas Nardone, an economist at BLS. So if higher levels of job loss do continue for years, the phenomenon should at least contribute to greater variability in incomes as more people move between jobs .... Two economic figures showed a mixed picture of economic growth: Home sales recovered during November following five months of declines, while the index of leading economic indicators increased slightly ....(Washington Post, page E3; Wall Street Journal, page A2)_____The index of leading economic indicators edged up 0.1 percent in November after remaining flat in October, the Conference Board reports ....The index has increased or remained steady every month since February ....(Daily Labor Report, pages 2,D-1)_____Home resales surged a surprising 1.8 percent; housing could be the engine that drives a vigorous expansion ....(New York Times, page D1) President Clinton signs executive order confirming that 1997 pay increases for federal General Schedule employees and most Senior Executive Service employees will average 3 percent ....Federal employees in the metropolitan area encompassing Washington, D.C., and Baltimore will receive a 3.33 percent net increase ....(Daily Labor Report, page A-6)_____The government's senior executives in the Washington-Baltimore area will receive a 3.33 percent pay increase in 1997, although the top ranks will receive substantially less because of a freeze on congressional and Cabinet salaries ....(Washington Post, page A15).
