[PEN-L:910] BLS Daily Report

[Richardson_D]

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BLS DAILY REPORT, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1998:

The index of leading economic indicators remained unchanged in September
- 105.5 for the third straight month - revealing a slowing but still
healthy U.S. economy, the Conference Board says.  "For two straight
months the leading indicators have languished, suggesting the economy
will be hard pressed to match the robust growth posted the past few
years," said the director of business cycle research at the Board (Daily
Labor Report, page D-1).
__The leading economic indicator figure was a surprise to economists who
had expected a slight decrease (The Washington Post, page B15).
__The index of leading economic indicators suggests that the economy may
be slowing, at a time when Federal Reserve policy makers are considering
whether to cut interest rates again.
This means central bankers, who meet again November 17, have room to cut
interest rates for a third time since the end of September, if borrowing
costs for companies do not get cheaper on their own (The New York Times,
page C5).

As in years past, workers at most U.S. establishments will enjoy a 2-day
Thanksgiving holiday, according to a Bureau of National Affairs survey.
About 71 percent of the responding employers will grant paid holidays
for both Thanksgiving Day and the following Friday (Daily Labor Report,
page C-1).

A Cornell University study predicts that employment-based health care
benefits will shift over the next few years from a defined benefit to a
defined contribution arrangement involving some kind of medical savings
accounts or vouchers.  Title of the study is "Employment-Based Health
Insurance:  The Inevitable Transition from Defined Benefit to Defined
Contribution," and is by Roger Battistella, professor of health policy
and management at Cornell and David Burchfield, assistant professor of
health care financial management (Daily Labor Report, page A-3).

Employee referrals and professional and informal networking were the
most important factors in recruiting new information technology
employees, according to an American Electronics Association-William A.
Mercer, Inc. survey. The survey was based on responses of 100 high-tech
companies, each employing fewer than 500 workers (Daily Labor Report,
page A-2).

The economy will need more workers, because an aging America will have a
small labor pool.  In 1997, there were about five Americans between 20
and 64 for every American 65 and over; by 2030 that ratio is projected
to fall below 3 to 1, says Robert J. Samuelson, in an op.ed. page (page
A25) article in The Washington Post on the eldercare problem of the
future and what should be done about it.

Computer companies are still introducing cheaper and cheaper PCs, but
consumers are paying less attention to price, says The Wall Street
Journal (page B1).  Average purchase prices for consumer desktop
computers, which fell 29 percent between January 1997 and January 1998,
have leveled off at $1,130 through September of this year, according to
ZD Market Intelligence of LaJolla, Calif.  Home computers are now
available for as little as $500, but the cheapest machines often have
technology that is a year or so old.  Faced with that option, a majority
of buyers are choosing to pay more for more up-to-date features (The
Wall Street Journal, page B1).

A National Retail Federation survey projects a strong Christmas, with
consumer spending in November and December rising 5 to 6 percent, but
retail experts are skeptical about the rosy forecast (The Wall Street
Journal, page B10).

The Federal Reserve's No. 2 policymaker, Alice Rivlin, says that she
expects the economy to slow significantly next year and unemployment to
rise, but not enough to trigger a recession (USA Today, page B1).


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