> So how is the opinion poll in Norway following Finland's decision?
asks Paul Musselman in a message to me. The answer may be of interest to
others too, so I cross-post it to some lists.
I am happy to announce that there seems to be no discernible effect on
Norwegian opinion from the recent 57% YES vote in Finland. Our latest poll,
done after the Finnish vote and published yesterday, says
46% (+2) NO, 29% (-1) YES (numbers in parentheses are changes
in opinion from last month, same polling institute).
When people are asked what they will vote if Sweden has voted YES
before them, the result is 41% NO, 36% YES. The NO leadership with the
Swedish assumption in-built has been stable for the last two months. It
was in fact better for the YES side in August.
In the llast poll, when people are presented the Swedish YES as a fact
first, nearly no one from the No side changes to YES, a few changes to
UNDECIDED. The marked increase in YES with the Swedish assumption is
due to UNDECIDED changing to YES. But opinion poll experts here say
that this type of poll, where people are presented with the assumption
that Sweden has voted YES first, is biased, since persons being
undecided are the easiest to influence. Therefore the assumption given
by the pollster will to some degree also function argumentatively.
Furthermore, experience show that a lot of the UNDECIDED will not
participate in the referendum, we expect around 80% participation. The
domino effect from a possible Swedish YES will therefore probably not
be as large as indicated above.
Btw, the latest Swedish poll is 37% YES and 37% NO (Uha, uha..) Other
recent polls show a slight lead for YES. My prediction for Sweden is a
slight YES victory. This due to the extreme measures that the elite
will go to in the coming weeks. For the same reason I also expect the
NO lead in Norway to shrink. We expect threats of capital flight and
job losses, we expect the interest rates to increase (actual increase,
not only threats!), and we know that there will be a massive
advertising campaign for YES, which our side doesn't have the resources
to match.
People by now know most of the arguments, so the task for the NO side
is to a large degree to "vaccinate" the public against all "the
megaphones" that bwill scream and cajole YES!!! into their ears in the
coming weeks. Thank God that political commercials are not allowed on
Norwegian TV. (Btw, to the U.S. for a moment: I heard that Oliver North
has by now used 16 million dollars on his election campaign. Is any
semblance of democracy possible when such is allowed???)
Trond
-----------------------------------------------
| Trond Andresen ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) |
| Department of Engineering Cybernetics |
| The Norwegian Institute of Technology |
| N-7034 Trondheim, NORWAY |
| |
| phone (work) +47 73 59 43 58 |
| fax (work) +47 73 59 43 99 |
| private phone +47 73 53 08 23 |
-----------------------------------------------
