Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-14 Thread Michael Pollak
On Tue, 12 Jun 2001, Doug Henwood wrote: > Depends. If you believe Anwar Shaikh - and he's very persuasive on > this - currency values are determined over the long term by relative > productivity performance. Where does Shaikh write about this? Michael _

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-13 Thread Michael Perelman
There is a large literature on the so-called pass through -- the extent to which movements in exchange rates pass through to domestic prices. When the Yen rose, the Japanese tended to maintain market shares by reducing margins. On Wed, Jun 13, 2001 at 12:37:11PM -0700, Anthony D'Costa wrote: > A

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-13 Thread Doug Henwood
Jim Devine wrote: >of course we aren't. But aren't prices of most foreign-produced >goods (except oil, for example) first set in foreign currency and >then translated into dollars? Some, yes. But almost all commodities are priced in dollars, and lots of U.S. imports come from countries like C

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-13 Thread Anthony D'Costa
As Jim says: prices are first in local currencies, even if some inputs are incurred in dollar terms, then converted to USD. This means that dollar fluctuations cannot be fully captured by the export prices because of the lags between imported inputs and export of final products. But I will agree

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-13 Thread Jim Devine
At 03:01 PM 6/13/01 -0400, you wrote: >Jim Devine wrote: > >>Michael Perelman wrote: >>>It may well be that the reaction is not smooth, but will be a "straw that >>>broke the camel's back" type of reaction. Nothing happens with the first >>>few cuts, but then an overreaction to a subsequent one.

Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-13 Thread Doug Henwood
Jim Devine wrote: >Michael Perelman wrote: >>It may well be that the reaction is not smooth, but will be a "straw that >>broke the camel's back" type of reaction. Nothing happens with the first >>few cuts, but then an overreaction to a subsequent one. > >If so, we're in for a big ride. A sudden

Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-13 Thread Jim Devine
Michael Perelman wrote: >It may well be that the reaction is not smooth, but will be a "straw that >broke the camel's back" type of reaction. Nothing happens with the first >few cuts, but then an overreaction to a subsequent one. If so, we're in for a big ride. A sudden fall in the dollar would

RE: Re: RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Mark Jones
> No. It would mean the dollar is severely overvalued and will return > to earth, and then some. Why is the dollar over valued, if it is, if Shaikh is not necessarily wrong? Mark

Re: RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Doug Henwood
Mark Jones wrote: >Doug Henwood wrote: >>If you believe Anwar Shaikh - and he's very persuasive on >> this - currency values are determined over the long term by relative >> productivity performance. If the U.S. productivity "revival" is real >> - I'm skeptical, but I think we have to get thro

RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Mark Jones
Doug Henwood wrote: >If you believe Anwar Shaikh - and he's very persuasive on > this - currency values are determined over the long term by relative > productivity performance. If the U.S. productivity "revival" is real > - I'm skeptical, but I think we have to get through this slowdown to >

Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Doug Henwood
Jim Devine wrote: >Doug quotes: >>>Using the term "strong" for the first time in weeks, Rubin said, >>>"We believe that a strong dollar is in our interests and has been >>>in our interest." He also said "a strong dollar clearly has >>>contributed in many ways to our economic interests." > >it

Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Jim Devine
Doug quotes: >>Using the term "strong" for the first time in weeks, Rubin said, "We >>believe that a strong dollar is in our interests and has been in our >>interest." He also said "a strong dollar clearly has contributed in many >>ways to our economic interests." it makes sense: a high dollar

Re: RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Jim Devine
I wrote: >this discussion is interesting, but it's between two admitted ignorami >(Rob & myself). Is there anyone on pen-l who knows -- or has some sort of >journalism-based knowledge -- of why the U.S. has pursued a "high dollar" >policy? The journalism-based knowledge man, Doug, writes: >1)

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Doug Henwood
Jim Devine wrote: >this discussion is interesting, but it's between two admitted >ignorami (Rob & myself). Is there anyone on pen-l who knows -- or >has some sort of journalism-based knowledge -- of why the U.S. has >pursued a "high dollar" policy? 1) Wall Street likes it, because, among othe

RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread David Shemano
Jim Devine writes: - this discussion is interesting, but it's between two admitted ignorami (Rob & myself). Is there anyone on pen-l who knows -- or has some sort of journalism-based knowledge -- of why the U.S. has pursued a "high dollar" policy? - I am not sure about

RE: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Dorman, Peter
It's possible that the simplest explanation is the correct one: the high dollar represents a flexing of US political and financial power. From the standpoint of US-based finance, the high dollar asserts the primacy of the US as the financial center. In international terms, US financial instituti

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Michael Perelman
I suspect that the goal is not a high dollar per se, but the fear of the reaction to anticipation that the dollar will fall. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-12 Thread Jim Devine
this discussion is interesting, but it's between two admitted ignorami (Rob & myself). Is there anyone on pen-l who knows -- or has some sort of journalism-based knowledge -- of why the U.S. has pursued a "high dollar" policy? At 04:57 PM 06/12/2001 +, you wrote: >G'day Jim et al, > > > th

Re: Re: Re: query on US dollar

2001-06-11 Thread Rob Schaap
G'day Jim et al, > that works, assuming that the U.S. can continue to accumulate> external debt >with no negative consequences (like a move away from > the US$ as the main reserve >currency). But was it the U.S. intent? >From the administration's point of view, it may be that negativ