At 05:15 PM 10/15/00 -0400, Doug wrote:
>Coordinated interest rate cuts as a reaction to a panic would leave
>cross-national differences unchanged, so the currency impact could be
>minimized. And in a panic, CBers and traders would forget about inflation
>and worry about keeping everything aflo
Jim Devine wrote:
>If the Fed decides to pump up asset markets (with lower interest
>rates), it not only encourages the dreaded inflation -- still a
>major nightmare for the bankers and much of Wall Street, especially
>with recent oil price-hikes -- but also spurs a steeper fall in the
>doll
At 08:07 PM 10/14/2000 -0400, you wrote:
>Jim Devine wrote:
>
>>notable is the absence of an international lender of the last resort, or
>>even an international central banker concerned with the health of the
>>world economy but without l-o-l-r facility. The IMF acts instead as a
>>creditors' c
I wonder if a flight to liquidity is still on the table. Are
wealth holders willing to hold currency? I tend to think not.
What do weatlth holders consider safe instruments these days? (If
I were a wealth holder, I'd be moving money into (internationally
diversified) govt securities but of co
I'm aware that "the rest of the world expands" is the preferred solution to
the US current account deficit (and capital account bubble). Has anyone
calculated the rate of expansion that would be required to do this, without
drastic changes to the value of the dollar, given the US price and income
On Sat, 14 Oct 2000, Peter Dorman wrote:
> secure; they were the targets of subsequent runs. Is there some way
> to think about the pricking of the dollar bubble in the absence of
> resurgent confidence in some other currency?
Sure -- vigorous expansion in the EU and East Asia, which would pull
This is true -- I really don't think we know anything that these folks
don't (although we of course put different values on it and maybe weight
the probabilities differently). Still, I'm not sure they would have the
resources to stem a sudden run on the dollar under the current
circumstances (whi
Jim Devine wrote:
>notable is the absence of an international lender of the last
>resort, or even an international central banker concerned with the
>health of the world economy but without l-o-l-r facility. The IMF
>acts instead as a creditors' cartel, so the closest to playing this
>role is
At 04:44 PM 10/14/2000 -0700, you wrote:
>Maybe, but there can also be a generalized flight to liquidity -- but what
>does
>that mean in today's global financial system? I'm thinking back (OK,
>worst case
>scenario) to the opening years of the great depression, when there was a
>series of
>run
Barney,
Maybe, but there can also be a generalized flight to liquidity -- but what does
that mean in today's global financial system? I'm thinking back (OK, worst case
scenario) to the opening years of the great depression, when there was a series of
runs on national currencies. Currencies that
Barney wrote:
>Rather than heading towards upwards or downward harmonization, perhaps we
>are in a relatively stable regime, where (non-direct) foreign investment
>transfers wealth to US asset holders, who then use that wealth to continue
>consuming imports, thus sustaining foreign output and t
> though looking at the foreign-exchange value of the dollar is important, I
> think that looking at aggregate demand is more important. There are two
> polar alternatives:
>
> 1) the US trade deficit pulls up the rest of the world, allowing a
> mutually-reinforcing demand-side boom amongst the ca
Barney Wagman writes:
>Higher energy prices hurt (or are perceived to hurt) Europe and Japan more
>than the US, so oil prices aren't likely to have much effect on capital
>flows. I suspect it will take a major expansion somewhere in the world
>before things turn around.
though looking at the
> As long as the dollar remains high, it indicates that the inflow of
> external finance is continuing to sustain US consumption. When the dollar
> drops (as it must, eventually), we are in a new era.
I think Peter has it right. Until some other part of the world becomes more
attractive to capi
and a UE rate of 3.9 percent.
Ai chihuahua. (yiddish for 'oy vey.')
mbs
Is the beginning of the end for the so-called boom? Doug usually has a
skeptical response to such questions. But here goes: We are seeing a
spike in energy prices, higher interest prices abroad, a momentary sign
of in
Doesn't Wallstreet have a bit of a cold ?
CB
>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 10/13/00 12:17PM >>>
Is the beginning of the end for the so-called boom? Doug usually has a
skeptical response to such questions. But here goes: We are seeing a
spike in energy prices, higher interest prices abroad, a momentar
As one of the oracles-in-residence on this list, I say: follow the dollar.
As long as the dollar remains high, it indicates that the inflow of
external finance is continuing to sustain US consumption. When the dollar
drops (as it must, eventually), we are in a new era. Like all oracles, I
am giv
At 09:17 AM 10/13/00 -0700, you wrote:
>Is the beginning of the end for the so-called boom? Doug usually has a
>skeptical response to such questions. But here goes: We are seeing a
>spike in energy prices, higher interest prices abroad, a momentary sign
>of inflation, and a slowdown in employme
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