Doug Henwood Must dissent here. The confidence numbers are a good leading
indicator of the bizcycle. They generally bottom about 3 months ahead of the
cyclical trough (and top out about 1-2 months ahead of the peak). And the
confidence numbers themselves - at least the Conference Board's version
Devine, James wrote:
I answered, adding some comments [in brackets]:
there's a difference between (1) the problem of stagnant or falling
incomes and wealth limiting consumption and (2) the issue of consumer
confidence. The former refers to objective barriers, while the latter
refers to
G'day Doug'n'Jim,
Sez Doug:
Must dissent here. The confidence numbers are a good leading
indicator of the bizcycle. They generally bottom about 3 months ahead
of the cyclical trough (and top out about 1-2 months ahead of the
peak). And the confidence numbers themselves - at least the
