The aggressive Israeli policy towards the Palestinians is linked to Israel's fear of the PFLP, certain elements within Fatah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. It reckons that the influence of the Arafat faction is slipping and will eventually be replaced by a more militantly radical leadership. Consequently the Palestinian Authority will acquire a correspondingly more radical character. This will strengthen strains on Israel diminishing its present overall level of control significantly. This new Palestinian will use its control of the PA as a platform from which mobilise domestic and international support for a more independent and stronger Palestinian state.
Israel has anticipated any such development. It is struggling to force Arafat to crush this opposition now. In this way it hopes that if some form of the Oslo Accords is finally implemented the new PA will have a compliant character. There is the danger that Arafat may fall in the process of pursuing this aggressive strategy for Israel. Clearly there is an element of risk on the part of Israel here. The point is that it may believe it has little choice in the matter. The situation may prove worse if a more militant PA replaces the Arafat leadership anyway. It may also be of the view that there is a good chance that if Israel's strategy topples Arafat he may be replaced at this point in time by a leadership within Fatah that will have greater capability of crushing the more militant opposition. On the other hand Sharon may believe that it is better that Arafat goes sooner rather than later. It may have calculated that if he is replaced by a more militant leadership it is now better poised to crush it for once and for all. The Israeli government want the Arafat leadership to play the same overtly pro-imperialist role that is being played out by the Northern Alliance and Karzi in Afghanistan. The problem is that the Palestinian militants have been more successful in singing social roots within the Palestinian masses. This makes them more difficult to confront. Regards Karl Carlile (Communist Global Group) Be free to join our communism mailing list at http://homepage.eircom.net/~kampf/
