(Despite widespread speculation that the turn in the interest rate cycle
will burst the housing bubble in the US and elsewhere, precipitating a wider
financial and social crisis, early indications are that housing markets will
soften and stagnate rather than collapse, according to a report in
Contrarian ChroniclesThe housing bubble doesn't
add up
Just like stock prices, real estate prices
will not go up forever. We can't all live in million-dollar houses. Thatâs what
scares me and should scare you.By Bill FleckensteinIt might be hard for folks to
step ba
from the NYT
(http://query.nytimes.com/mem/tnt.html?tntget=2004/06/24/business/24housing.html&tntemail0):
>>...Most analysts agree that there is no nationwide housing bubble because housing
>>prices have climbed only slowly in the Midwest and the South, even as they have
>
> From: Michael Perelman [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Sent: Fri 1/16/2004 4:47 PM
> To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Cc:
> Subject: Re: [PEN-L] housing bubble
>
>
>
> Isn't it significant that Leamer is picking up on it?
>
>
PEN-L] housing bubble
Isn't it significant that Leamer is picking up on it?
On Fri, Jan 16, 2004 at 04:44:34PM -0800, Devine, James wrote:
> Michael P writes: >Jim D. noted the W.S.J. article about wealth and
suggested a housing
Isn't it significant that Leamer is picking up on it?
On Fri, Jan 16, 2004 at 04:44:34PM -0800, Devine, James wrote:
> Michael P writes: >Jim D. noted the W.S.J. article about wealth and suggested a
> housing
> bubble might put an end to it. The remark by his neighbor, Ed Lea
Michael P writes: >Jim D. noted the W.S.J. article about wealth and suggested a housing
bubble might put an end to it. The remark by his neighbor, Ed Leamer,
at the end of the article anticipates Jim.<
pen-l alumnus Dean Baker has been talking about this stuff for quite awhile, in
exact
But Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has said there is no housing bubble. And
stock strategists are also generally sanguine on the market's outlook.
Furthermore, the Fed has made it clear it will keep interest rates low
until the economy is growing briskly and the risk of deflation has been
ban
Jim D. noted the W.S.J. article about wealth and suggested a housing
bubble might put an end to it. The remark by his neighbor, Ed Leamer,
at the end of the article anticipates Jim.
Rising Stocks, Home Values Are Restoring Wealth
U.S. Households Are Aided By Recovery, but Could Fall Victim to
I don't think that construction costs have a great deal to do with
inflation in housing prices. As Schiller says, "location, location,
location:" land prices have been soaring in the booming areas. For that
reason, a good deal of increase in our population has come from people who
sell their pro
Eugene Coyle wrote:
The most persuasive is that the cost of constructing a new house --
if lower than the price of a house -- would prevent a bubble as
profitable new construction flooded in to keep the prices from
bubbling.
But the market is mainly about existing houses, which are about 80%
Robert Shiller has an interesting essay in today's WSJ, "Safe as
Houses?" in which he argues against a housing bubble in several ways.
The most persuasive is that the cost of constructing a new house -- if
lower than the price of a house -- would prevent a bubble as profitable
n
Doug is raising an important issue that goes beyond housing. Because of
their addiction to the human capital framework, mainstream economists
have looked at inequality almost entirely through the lense of years of
education. If the gap between HS and college grads narrows, they
interpret this
It's hard to know what data to look at in figuring out whether there's a
bubble. But falling margin requirements always make me suspicious; and,
nowadays, at least in the Bay area, you can get a mortgage with little or
no money down.
There is also the extraordinary obligation of the mortgage co
Jim Devine quoted Dean Baker:
Second, the bubble years 1995-2002, where exactly the years in which
income inequality fell back somehwat.
Eh? Household ginis, acc to the Census Bureau:
1990 0.428
1991 0.428
1992 0.434
1993 0.454
1994 0.456
1995 0.450
1996 0.455
1997
Title: FW: housing bubble?
Dean Baker responded to my comment:>Both the home price index that I cite in the paper and the CPI's rental index are quality adjusted (more or less) so there would not be an issue of composition effects driving the price changes. It could be the case t
On Tuesday, December 17, 2002 at 08:27:59 (-0800) Devine, James writes:
>...
>Okay, my thought, about one "fundamental" which could be behind the bubblish
>data: one of the things that also happened is the widening gaps in the
>income and wealth distributions that has been sustained over the last 2
Title: housing bubble?
While reading Dean Baker's excellent article on the housing bubble in the current issue of CHALLENGE, I thought of a factor that he didn't discuss, i.e., the distribution of income and wealth. This might suggest that the "bubble" isn't that mu
FWIW, there's a clickable map on the front page of the Wall Street Journal
website today listing the up to date housing market stats for most major
markets. The link that brings up the map is relatively far down on the
page.
Michael
not
> convinced the bubble will burst. On the other hand, I can't figure
> out where the incomes are coming from to support these $500,000
> mortgages.
>
> Ellen
>
>
> [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
> >Sabri Oncu wrote:
> >
> >>Do you have any har
writes:
>Sabri Oncu wrote:
>
>>Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
>>a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
>>normal drop in a period of economic hardship?
>
>Most U.S. housing indicators have been strong. New hous
Title: RE: [PEN-L:32674] Re: A question to FMC: Housing Bubble?
> Sabri Oncu wrote:
>
> >Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
> >a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
> >normal drop in a period of economic hardship
Sabri Oncu wrote:
Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
normal drop in a period of economic hardship?
Most U.S. housing indicators have been strong. New house sales fell
in Oct, but they'd been r
These are some personal observations.
Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
normal drop in a period of economic hardship?
Best,
Sabri
I am surprised that building permits are increasing. I wonder what kind
of permits they are -- apartments, luxury homes, commercial?
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
11/20 11:14
U.S. Economy: October Housing Starts Fall to 1.603 Mln Pace
By Monee Fields-White
Washington, Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home construction fell in
October to the lowest in six months, indicating a tapering off of
the housing boom that's been a mainstay of the economy.
Builders broke
I understood that unemployment in construction rose last month or that
emploment went down. Could this be a sign? Also, I saw a notice in the
Wall Street Journal that GM says that even 0% financing isn't moving cars.
Maybe we better hurry up and invade.
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
Title: housing bubble popping??
In his "Prices Byte," 10/18/02, Dean Baker writes:
>The slowing inflation in the housing components is mixed news for the
economy. While it does help to keep down the overall rate of
inflation, it leads to a further divergence between the rise in
One problem with Leamer's analogy of price earnings: rents rose along
with housing prices to unrealistic levels, where many of the high priced
stocks had little or no earnings.
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL
Title: housing bubble (II)
The Basics
What to do if home prices plunge
A sustained period of declining home prices would turn a lot of traditional thinking on its head. Paying down your mortgage can be risky, and cash becomes your most valuable asset.
By Liz Pulliam Weston
Now that it
Title: housing bubble to burst?
Don't get trapped in a housing bubble
Your house has a price-to-earnings ratio, just like a stock, and homebuyers who ignore that P/E could be overpaying. Here's what you should look for and how you can reduce your risk.
By Liz Pulliam Weston
An
Here's my two cents on the U.S. housing bubble, mentioned at the end of the
LAT analysis that Jim D. posted below:
http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0720-08.htm
By the way, housing prices in Sacramento are skyrocketing, due in part to
the exodus of workers from the S.F. Bay Area.
My uncle's very, very modest Palo Alto home, small lot with 2 very small
bedrooms in a modest neighborhood, was worth $1.25 mill. Nobody would buy
the house for that much -- just the lot. Any buyer would have to cover
the expense of demolition.
On Mon, Apr 01, 2002 at 06:41:03PM -0800, Sabri On
Michael "the Chico Marx" Perelman writes:>Here in Chico, housing has been
booming for quite some time. The realtors explain that majority of the
increasing demand comes from people in more southern parts of the state
whose houses have been soaring in value. They sell out, buy a
comparable or bi
Michael writes:
> Here in Chico, housing has been booming for
> quite some time. The realtors explain that
> majority of the increasing demand comes
> from people in more southern parts of the
> state whose houses have been soaring in value.
> They sell out, buy a comparable or bigger
> house he
Here in Chico, housing has been booming for quite some time. The
realtors explain that majority of the increasing demand comes
from people in more southern parts of the state whose houses have
been soaring in value. They sell out, buy a comparable or bigger
house here, and pocket a tidy sum. We
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