saving (was: tax-cut expansion & wealth effect)

2001-07-30 Thread Alex Izurieta
Christian said, in reaction to a paragraph of mine (also quoted): >> Our point, in the "Implosion..." paper was not that debt/ income ratio is >> guiding consumers, but that such indicator ought to inform economists and >> policy-makers of the risk of letting things going this pace. > >So, in yo

Re: tax-cut expansion & wealth effect

2001-07-28 Thread Christian Gregory
> > Our point, in the "Implosion..." paper was not that debt/ income ratio is > guiding consumers, but that such indicator ought to inform economists and > policy-makers of the risk of letting things going this pace. > So, in your view, an increase in saving, at this point (or a recalibration of

Re: Re: tax-cut expansion & wealth effect

2001-07-27 Thread Michael Perelman
Jim, most of the reports on the Japanese real estate bubble concerned Tokyo. I am not sure if Bay Area real estate did not escalate a comparable rates. Recall the Palo Alto one-bedroom fixer-upper that sold for $1.25 mill. on a small lot. On Fri, Jul 27, 2001 at 11:28:33AM -0700, Jim Devine wro

Re: tax-cut expansion & wealth effect

2001-07-27 Thread Jim Devine
Alex wrote: >IMHO, the probable thing, and at the same time unprecedented in its depth >(would this merit the qualification of "improbable"?), would be a recession >scenario, of drastic and painful consequences (and not equally distributed, >neither domestically nor across the borders). also, the

Re: tax-cut expansion & wealth effect

2001-07-27 Thread Michael Perelman
I'm sorry if I was not clear in what I wrote. I only meant to indicate that the article gave the impression that the boost in consumer spending was based on something real, ignoring that the real estate prices were part of a bubble. Alex Izurieta wrote: > Yet, I am not sure whether I understand

tax-cut expansion & wealth effect

2001-07-27 Thread Alex Izurieta
Hello, I am trying to contribute to two separate issues in one email; forgive me if this is not allowed. TAX CUTS and expansion / recession Thanks to Tom Walker remarks (and epilogue below). I broadly agree. We know one thing: business as usual ain't going to cut it. The probable is no longer p