Published: Wednesday 8 December 2004 - 12:00

 

The allegations of fraudulent practices during the 28 November elections in Romania were not completely unfounded, reveals Cristian Parvulescu, president of the Pro Democratia Association in Bucharest, in an interview with EurActiv Romania.

 

Mr Parvulescu, what is your overall opinion about the parliamentary and presidential elections in Romania on 28 November? 

For the first time in the post-revolutionary history of Romania, the 28 November elections were marked by bipolarity. It was also the first time that the distance between the parties was very small. 

This at least partly explains why the results are under what we call a 'fraud margin'. Under Romanian law, the citizens may cast their ballots in any voting district in the country. It was also rather easy to remove the self-adhesive stamp on voters' identity cards [which therefore allowed the possibility that they might vote a second time], which was the only safety element until the Central Electoral Bureau decided on stricter controls on 29 November. Furthermore, those who voted away from their home were entered on special lists, which were not, according to the law, centralised at a national level and nobody was checking whether those persons had voted before. After the bureau’s 29 November ruling, these lists may now be centralised and checked by the political parties, and they can also check the persons voting in several places and compare them to the permanent lists. 

Another problem occurred with the use of the mobile ballot boxes [sent to voters' houses on request if, for example, they were ill or disabled]. In several voting districts we found that the mobile ballot boxes were sent either to persons who had not solicited them, or to persons who had not presented, along with the request for the box, medical documents attesting that they themselves could not get to the ballot stations by themselves.

The third important problem was connected to 'administrative mobilisation', especially in the countryside, of persons who did not originally intend to vote. 

All these problems belong to what we call the 'fraud margin'. Since the law does not allow for fraud to be clearly proven, neither the observers, nor the electoral bureaus are able to establish if a citizen did or did not vote in more than one place, as there is no formal and clear ban on mayors forcefully mobilising the citizens to vote. 

In fact, to prove the existence of 'electoral tourism', numerous journalists went out to vote on purpose in more than one district. 

If voter turnout is ten million, a one per cent fraud rate means 100,000 suspect votes. Let’s make an approximate calculus: if twenty votes are 'stolen' in every district, at a national level, in the 17,500 districts, fraudulent votes would represent three per cent of the total vote. Under the current conditions, a 20% fraud rate appears to be not only possible but also plausible. 

Pro Democratia, the association I represent, has asked for the law to be modified on numerous occasions. However, this has not happened yet. Following some last minute changes that were introduced through an emergency decree, the government now intends to forbid, through another emergency decree, the use of the supplementary voters’ lists for the second round. 

It remains clear for us that the government is trying to find improvised solutions to problematic situations. Furthermore, we strongly believe that all these wrongdoings should be presented clearly and coherently to the Romanian and the international public opinion in order to prevent them from happening again. 

What are your predictions for the run-off on 12 December? 

One positive result of the 28 November elections has been the balancing of powers in Romanian politics. Whatever the final result, these forces are relatively equal and this will increase the autonomy of the public institutions that have been politicised so far. It will also contribute to the strengthening of individual freedoms, unlike under the hegemonic party system that has dominated Romania for a decade and a half.

The second round of the presidential elections is very complicated and debatable as it contrasts two Romanias. After the counting of the votes it became clear that there are several cleavages in Romania today. On one hand there is a rural-urban split, as the urban population voted more with the Justice and Truth Alliance (DA) of Bucharest Mayor Traian Basescu, while the rural population tended to side with the Social Democratic Party (PSD) of Prime Minister Adrian Nastase. 

There is also a regional-economic split. People in Western Romania, Transylvania and the Banat region voted mainly for the Alliance, whereas the Eastern region and at least one southern region, Oltenia, voted for the PSD. 

Finally, there is the cultural division. In cultural terms, Transylvania belongs to Central Europe. It is a zone of ethnic and religious pluralism. The other parts in the Eastern region have Byzantine roots and are dominated by Orthodox people. 

Predictions concerning the presidential candidates are hard to make. Both candidates have a very good chance, but so far, in the run-offs to the presidential elections, Romanians have voted for the candidate of the party that won the elections.

What do you think about the chances of either party winning a majority in parliament? Could Romania come to a cohabitation system, similar to that in France, with Basescu as a president and the PSD together with the Humanist Party (PUR) commanding a majority coalition in parliament? If so, what would this mean for Romania? 

I think a cohabitation system wouldn’t be workable in Romania, although the scenario should not be ruled out. 

Should Adrian Nastase become the president, a confirmation vote could be achieved with the help of Corneliu Vadim Tudor’s Greater Romania Party (PRM) or even the Alliance itself. It is a hypothesis that cannot be ruled out in Romania

In the case of Traian Basescu becoming the president, he will likely try to form a government with his own political group, the Alliance. Should the distance between the Alliance and the PSD prove to be too big, Basescu would have difficulties forming a majority and would thus be forced to ask for the indirect support of the PRM or even the PSD. Then, of course, it is also possible that parliament rejects the proposed cabinet. After two unsuccessful attempts, early elections would have to be called. 

If there is a change of regime, what impact (if any) would that have on Romania’s EU accession?

A change in the political colour of the government and the president does not imply in any way a policy transformation concerning European integration. There is a suspicion among officials in Brussels about the capacity of a DA Alliance-led government to continue the integration process. But this suspicion seems to be induced. Determination on the part of the Alliance exists and I think that the movement of any government in Romania will be very limited in the accession process as the tasks related to the implementation of the measures negotiated with the EU remain priorities. Absolutely all the parliamentary parties consider EU integration a priority. The key issue remains the expansion of the country’s institutional capacity. Under all scenarios, the Romanian authorities will have to meet European [EU] standards. However, the 28 November elections have provided ample proof that Romania does not yet have a parliamentary and presidential election system corresponding to European standards, and that efforts must be made in order to accomplish this. 

http://www.euractiv.com/Article?_lang=EN&tcmuri=tcm:29-133221-16&type=Interview,

 

 


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Birou de traduceri autorizate. Oana Gheorghiu - tel/fax: 252.8681 / [EMAIL PROTECTED]



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