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CECIL HURT: Freshmen overload could hurt Bama in the long run* August 01, 2004
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As the college football season gets closer, University of Alabama football coach Mike Shula keeps gradually increasing his estimate on the number of freshmen who will contribute for the Crimson Tide in 2004.
Shula had consistently been saying that there was a chance that 10 true freshmen might see playing time for Alabama this fall. Then, on his Thursday appearance at SEC Media Days, Shula pushed that number to “as many as 13." That sounds like a lot, even under ordinary circumstances, and these aren’t ordinary circumstances for the Crimson Tide.
First, Alabama will have no more than 17 scholarship freshmen to report on Aug. 9. There could actually be 18 on hand, depending on the academic status of Randolph County star Ezekial Knight, but if Knight is eligible, then at least one undisclosed freshman has agreed to pay his own way. Two of the Tide’s 19 newcomers aren’t freshmen. Chris Turner and Jamie Dukes are junior college transfers who are also expected to see action right away.
So if Shula’s maximum estimate of 13 freshmen is accurate, then the Tide will actually be using 15 of its 19 newcomers -- almost 80 percent -- and redshirting only four players, most of those being, presumably, offensive linemen. One could further assume that, if Alabama weren’t roughly 10 players short of a typical SEC load, that number of redshirts would double, at least.
There is no hard-and-fast way to calculate just what effect that will have on the 2004 Crimson Tide or, for that matter, the 2009 Crimson Tide, which will have fewer fifth-year seniors than it might have had. One can excuse Shula if his thoughts are more concerned with 2004 than they are with 2009. However, just thinking about 2009 illustrates the destructiveness of NCAA scholarship sanctions -- and that was not inadvertent on the NCAA’s part.
At this point, Shula is accentuating the positive. Using freshmen is an inescapable necessity at some positions, like wide receiver, but at other spots, it will create enhanced competition, Shula says. He also notes that the instant playing time for this year’s freshmen is an important lure for recruits in the Class of 2005.
Those are good points, but there is also the inescapable negative -- true freshmen are making a huge jump from high school competition to the NCAA Division I level. It’s a stretch to think that 80 percent, even 80 percent of a good signing class, are going to make that transition without some serious bumps along the way.
Obviously, some freshmen are good enough to play even if a program is at full strength. There will be a few first-year players on the field at USC and LSU this year. But in those cases, the freshman is probably an exceptional one, and he has probably beaten out an experienced player to get a job. There may be an instance or two of that happening at Alabama this fall. There are glowing early reports about several of the Tide’s signees. Wide receiver Keith Brown, defensive backs Simeon Castille and Travis Robinson, tight end Trent Davidson and defensive lineman Justin Britt, among others, have all received positive reviews from their older soon-to-be-teammates.
But, by and large, the freshmen will be pressed into service because there are no other realistic alternatives. And that will leave Shula hoping that they are good enough, rather than knowing that they are.
Reach Cecil Hurt at [EMAIL PROTECTED] or at 205-722-0225.
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