http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/384514/will_china_beat_the_united_states_back.html
Will China Beat the United States Back to the Moon? The Stakes in the New Space Race Are High By Mark Whittington Published Sep 21, 2007 Recently, during an address on the space economy to coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the start of the space age, NASA Administrator Michael Griffin made the assertion that China would beat the United States to the Moon. His remarks follow: "I personally believe that China will be back on the Moon before we are. I think when that happens, Americans will not like it, but they will just have to not like it. I think we will see, as we have seen with China's introductory manned space flights so far, we will see again that nations look up to other nations that appear to be at the top of the technical pyramid, and they want to do deals with those nations. It's one of the things that made us the world's greatest economic power. So I think we'll be reinstructed in that lesson in the coming years and I hope that Americans will take that instruction positively and react to it by investing in those things that are the leading edge of what's possible." Most people are not aware of the full scope of the Chinese space effort, which has political, economic, and military components. While there has been no announced Chinese humans to the Moon effort, much of what China is currently or is planning to do in space would tend to point there. China's manned space effort seems to be designed to steadily increase China's space operations capabilities. The Shenzhou 5, which flew in 2003 with a single taikonaut (Chinese for astronaut), orbited the Earth for just over twenty one hours and proved China's capability to launch humans into space. Shenzhou 6, with two taikonauts, followed in 2005 and remained in space for five days. The crew performed some biomedical experiments while aloft, proving China's capability to maintain humans in space for slightly longer periods while doing science. Future Shenzhou missions will feature space walks, rendezvous and docking, and longer duration missions. This follows the pattern of America's Mercury and Gemini programs, which preceded the Apollo lunar program and gradually improved America's space operational capabilities. At the same time as the Shenzhou program, China is embarking on a program of robotic lunar exploration. The first Chinese lunar prove, the Chang'e, will orbit the Moon and conduct remote sensing operations in late 2007. A lunar lander and a lunar rover probe are slated to follow in the next decade. This again seems to follow, in part at least, the American pattern of robotic exploration of the Moon, with the Ranger and Surveyor probes, that preceded the Apollo moon landing. China can send humans to the Moon in one of two ways. It can use existing launchers to assemble the Moon ship in low Earth orbit before launching it to the Moon. Alternatively it can develop a heavy lift version of the Long March launcher, much as America did the Saturn V and is doing with the Ares 1 and V. China returning humans to the Moon would be a catastrophic blow to the prestige of the United States. If left unanswered it could be a much greater blow to America's position as a super power. Just as sea power made Britain supreme in the 18th and 19th Centuries and just as air power made America supreme in the 20th Century, who possesses space power will determine who is supreme in the 21st Century. Returning to the Moon represents the first step in establishing space as a venue of human economic and political activity. The potential of space or lunar based solar power, now being studied by the US military, and fusion power fueled by helium 3 to address the world's energy concerns is incalculable. The Moon is the key to accessing these resources. The prospect of China, ruled by a totalitarian regime that asserts its power through force and terror, being the first, perhaps the only country to return to the Moon and access its resources, would be a tragedy of historic dimensions. It would signal the beginning of the end of the United States as a super power and the commencement of the Chinese Century. Clearly, if Griffin is correct and China not only can but will beat the United States back to the Moon, there can be only one response. That would be to accelerate and expand our own program. We've done it before. We can do it again.
