Geoff,

I agree with most of your analysis, but I wouldn't be so harsh on it. 

In the capital scenario you outline, if there's a single founder and the 
prize equity is diluted (a non-dilution right would be getting a bit nasty 
IMO) the founder has 23% of a business with $25M valuation which is worth 
over $5M - a substantial amount of value for them to build on and hopefully 
later realise. 

Of course, that is very much a best-case scenario with a very strong series 
A valuation and excellent seed round too. I agree such a large initial 
investor equity reduces founder upside dramatically. It also makes common 
scenarios like a lower seed valuation, second seed round (not quite there 
for series A), etc much more painful to all concerned which may make a 
business failure more likely in the mid-performance case.

Entrepreneurs should look at options like this with their eyes wide open, 
and have a good look at other options too - diversity is good. I really 
like startmate, Scale and bluechilli - would like to see all succeed as 
well as GRIFFIN Accelerator <http://griffinaccelerator.com.au/> which I'm 
involved in - all four of those options have distinctly different value 
propositions for entrepreneurs to look at.

Cheers,

Craig Davis
@Craig_A_Davis
griffinaccelerator.com.au

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