Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 9:04 PM, Thaths wrote: > > The last couple of general elections (2004, 2009) exit poll > predictions have been significantly different from the actual > outcomes. And the difference is more than the exit poll's margin of > error. Do you have any theories as to why exit poll

Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

On Saturday 16 May 2009 10:57:38 pm Suresh Ramasubramanian wrote: > The stock market seems to have a lot of players who are bjp supporters > (Maharashtra and Gujarat in particular have lots more of those) .. which > makes for a quite artificial barometer that links the market to a rise or > fall in

Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

On Sun, May 17, 2009 at 2:38 AM, Thaths wrote: > On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 9:12 AM, Suresh Ramasubramanian > wrote: >> Prakash Carrot was confidently prophesying a 3rd front well into today >> morning > I think optimism at the 11th hour is standard politics. c.f. John > McCain statements about w

Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

yes... they may have voted BJP - but they put their money on a Congress win :-) On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 10:57 PM, Suresh Ramasubramanian wrote: > The stock market seems to have a lot of players who are bjp supporters > (Maharashtra and Gujarat in particular have lots more of those) .. which > mak

Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

The stock market seems to have a lot of players who are bjp supporters (Maharashtra and Gujarat in particular have lots more of those) .. which makes for a quite artificial barometer that links the market to a rise or fall in the BJP's fortunes, at least temporarily. srs -Original

Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

I do think digital media or crowdthink may be some sort of barometer - apart from the satta markets. These seem to beat the exit-poll guys consistently. This poll Pinstorm did two months ago: http://is.gd/Alve and the satta markets both seemed to predi

Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 10:08 PM, Thaths wrote: > On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 9:12 AM, Suresh Ramasubramanian > wrote: > > What do you expect, accuracy? > > Maybe not from the likes of ToI. But definitely from the established > market research places like MARG. > > > Hell, even the parties couldn’t

Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 9:12 AM, Suresh Ramasubramanian wrote: > What do you expect, accuracy? Maybe not from the likes of ToI. But definitely from the established market research places like MARG. > Hell, even the parties couldn’t predict it .. Prakash Carrot was confidently > prophesying a 3r

Re: [silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

Thaths [Saturday, 16 May 2009 9:04 PM] > The last couple of general elections (2004, 2009) exit poll > predictions have been significantly different from the actual > outcomes. And the difference is more than the exit poll's margin of Given that I saw at least one channel (Times Now I think) inte

[silk] Why have Indian exit polls been so off lately?

The last couple of general elections (2004, 2009) exit poll predictions have been significantly different from the actual outcomes. And the difference is more than the exit poll's margin of error. Do you have any theories as to why exit polling is so crappy in India? Is it because of India's size?

Re: [silk] Bangalore Meetup on May 16?

On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 3:17 PM, RavB wrote: > > Not feeling so well today -- I might not make it, in which case: my regrets. OTOH, I was going to travel today, except now I'm not. So I'll join in too. It'd be nice to put faces to some of the names here! Venkat (Inumella)

Re: [silk] Bangalore Meetup on May 16?

> > > > We meet at 6 PM at Crossword [1]. At Venky's place on Lavelle Road after > that. > > For more info: Udhay: 98450 74927 Not feeling so well today -- I might not make it, in which case: my regrets.