Ben Goertzel wrote:
Much of this discussion is very abstract, which is I guess how you think about
these issues when you don't have a specific AGI design in mind.
My view is a little different.
If the Novamente design is basically correct, there's no way it can possibly
take thousands or hundreds of programmers to implement it. The most I
can imagine throwing at it would be a couple dozen, and I think 10-20 is
the right number.
So if the Novamente design is basically correct, it's would take a team of
10-20 programmers a period of 3-10 years to get to human-level AGI.
So you are talking on the order of $9M - $30M.
Sadly, we do not have 10-20 dedicated programmers working on Novamente
(or associated OpenCog) AGI right now, but rather fractions of various peoples'
time (as Novamente LLC is working mainly on various commercial projects
that pay our salaries). So my point is not to make a projection regarding our
progress (that depends too much on funding levels), just to address this issue
of ideal team size that has come up yet again...
You know, I am getting pretty tired of hearing this poor mouth crap.
This is not that huge a sum to raise or get financed. Hell, there are
some very futuristic rich geeks who could finance this single-handed and
would not really care that much whether they could somehow monetize the
result. I don't believe for a minute that there is no way to do
this. So exactly why are you singing this sad song year after year?
Even if my timing estimates are optimistic and it were to take 15 years, even
so, a team of thousands isn't gonna help things any.
If I had a billion dollars and the passion to use it to advance AGI, I would
throw amounts between $1M and $50M at various specific projects, I
wouldn't try to make one monolithic project.
From what you said above $50M will do the entire job. If that is all
that is standing between us and AGI then surely we can get on with it in
all haste. If it is a great deal more than this relatively small
amount of money then lets move on to talk about that instead of whining
about lack of coin.
- samantha
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singularity
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