The Independent
EU: Climate change will transform the face of the continent
By Michael McCarthy and Stephen Castle
Published: 10 January 2007
Europe, the richest and most fertile continent and the model for the
modern world, will be devastated by climate change, the European Union
predicts today.
The ecosystems that have underpinned all European societies from Ancient
Greece and Rome to present-day Britain and France, and which helped
European civilisation gain global pre-eminence, will be disabled by
remorselessly rising temperatures, EU scientists forecast in a
remarkable report which is as ominous as it is detailed.
Much of the continent's age-old fertility, which gave the world the vine
and the olive and now produces mountains of grain and dairy products,
will not survive the climate change forecast for the coming century, the
scientists say, and its wildlife will be devastated.
Europe's modern lifestyles, from summer package tours to winter skiing
trips, will go the same way, they say, as the Mediterranean becomes too
hot for holidays and snow and ice disappear from mountain ranges such as
the Alps - with enormous economic consequences. The social consequences
will also be felt as heat-related deaths rise and extreme weather
events, such as storms and floods, become more violent.
The report, stark and uncompromising, marks a step change in Europe's
own role in pushing for international action to combat climate change,
as it will be used in a bid to commit the EU to ambitious new targets
for cutting emissions of greenhouse gases.
The European Commission wants to hold back the rise in global
temperatures to 2C above the pre-industrial level (at present, the level
is 0.6C). To do that, it wants member states to commit to cutting back
emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, to 30 per
cent below 1990 levels by 2020, as long as other developed countries
agree to do the same.
Failing that, the EU would observe a unilateral target of a 20 per cent cut.
The Commission president, José Manuel Barroso, gave US President George
Bush a preview of the new policy during a visit to the White House this
week.
The force of today's report lies in its setting out of the scale of the
continent-wide threat to Europe's "ecosystem services".
That is a relatively new but powerful concept, which recognises
essential elements of civilised life - such as food, water, wood and
fuel - which may generally be taken for granted, are all ultimately
dependent on the proper functioning of ecosystems in the natural world.
Historians have recognised that Europe was particularly lucky in this
respect from the start, compared to Africa or pre-Columbian America -
and this was a major reason for Europe's rise to global pre-eminence.
"Climate change will alter the supply of European ecosystem services
over the next century," the report says. "While it will result in
enhancement of some ecosystem services, a large portion will be
adversely impacted because of drought, reduced soil fertility, fire, and
other climate change-driven factors.
"Europe can expect a decline in arable land, a decline in Mediterranean
forest areas, a decline in the terrestrial carbon sink and soil
fertility, and an increase in the number of basins with water scarcity.
It will increase the loss of biodiversity."
The report predicts there will be some European "winners" from climate
change, at least initially. In the north of the continent, agricultural
yields will increase with a lengthened growing season and a longer
frost-free period. Tourism may become more popular on the beaches of the
North Sea and the Baltic as the Mediterranean becomes too hot, and
deaths and diseases related to winter cold will fall.
But the negative effects will far outweigh the advantages. Take tourism.
The report says "the zone with excellent weather conditions, currently
located around the Mediterranean (in particular for beach tourism) will
shift towards the north". And it spells out the consequences.
"The annual migration of northern Europeans to the countries of the
Mediterranean in search of the traditional summer 'sun, sand and sea'
holiday is the single largest flow of tourists across the globe,
accounting for one-sixth of all tourist trips in 2000. This large group
of tourists, totalling about 100 million per annum, spends an estimated
€100bn (£67bn) per year. Any climate-induced change in these flows of
tourists and money would have very large implications for the
destinations involved."
While they are losing their tourists, the countries of the Med may also
be losing their agriculture. Crop yields may drop sharply as drought
conditions, exacerbated by more frequent forest fires, make farming ever
more difficult. And that is not the only threat to Europe's food
supplies. Some stocks of coldwater fish in areas such as the North Sea
will move northwards as the water warms.
There are many more direct threats, the report says. The cost of taking
action to cope with sea-level rise will run into billions of euros.
Furthermore, "for the coming decades, it is predicted the magnitude and
frequency of extreme weather events will increase, and floods will
likely be more frequent and severe in many areas across Europe."
The number of people affected by severe flooding in the Upper Danube
area is projected to increase by 242,000 in a more extreme 3C
temperature rise scenario, and by 135,000 in the case of a 2.2C rise.
The total cost of damage would rise from €47.5bn to €66bn in the event
of a 3C increase.
Although fewer people would die of cold in the north, that would be more
than offset by increased mortality in the south. Under the more extreme
scenario of a 3C increase in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990, there
would be 86,000 additional deaths.
