http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=2786

DEBKA (ISRAEL)

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Olmert bids for Finnish mediator to negotiate Israeli
soldier's release from Hamas - after the Egyptian effort came to grief

July 2, 2006, 12:08 PM (GMT+02:00)

Within 24 hours FM Tzipi Livni is due in Helsinki to explore the possibility
of the veteran mediator Martti Ahtisaari, former president of Finland,
undertaking the mission. She will be coming from talks in Moscow on Sunday,
July 2. This step is disclosed by DEBKAfile's intelligence sources. It
contradicts the Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert's reiteration after
Sunday`s cabinet meeting that Israel will not be blackmailed or negotiate
for the freedom of Corporal Gilead Shalit, who was kidnapped on the Israeli
side of the Gaza border exactly a week ago. If Olmert sticks to this
position, he commits Israel to launching extended, intensified military
action in the Gaza Strip, with the risk of igniting the Lebanese and Syrian
borders. In Moscow, Livni, without much hope of success, will try and enlist
president Vladimir Putin to bring his influence to bear with Syrian
president Vladimir Putin and Hamas to help end the crisis before it gets
further out of hand.

DEBKAfile adds: Recruiting Ahtisaari would initiate an
agonizingly slow process and condemn Gideon Shalit to weeks if not months in
captivity. The Finnish mediator, an outstanding expert on Muslim affairs and
negotiations, has just wound up one of his less succession missions in
Kosovo on behalf of the United Nations. Specializing in prisoner exchanges,
the former Finnish president takes a broad, comprehensive approach to a
crisis, which in the case of the Israeli corporal might well entail
cross-contacts with the Hizballah and the Muslim Brotherhood movement. He is
believed to have good connections with the Qatar-based Sheikh Yusuf Al-
Qaradawi, a mentor of the Muslim Brotherhood and a recognized religious
authority for all parts of Hamas. This avenue is being broached on the day
the hostage issue and Gaza crisis enter its second week. Israel is caught
with one foot in Gaza in an untenable position. It cannot go back and has
little choice but to go forward and embark on a full-scale war to fight
Hamas and its terrorist allies to the finish. The intervening week was time
wasted for the IDF. The Olmert government was held back by internal disputes
and a misjudged decision to hang on for Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak to
come up with results. Israel now finds itself maneuvered by Mahmoud Abbas,
with Cairo's help, into an all-out offensive to drive Hamas out of
Palestinian government and make way for the restoration of his Fatah.




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