~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ <http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=278502> http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=278502 Stratfor Kosovo: The West Keeps a Card up its Sleeve October 19, 2006 18 33 GMT Summary The United Nations has extended the mandate of its Special Envoy for Kosovo Marti Ahtisaari from November until June 2007, though Kosovar Prime Minister Agim Ceku said the move could escalate conflict in the region. The decision comes as Serbia faces potential political chaos -- the ratification of a new constitution, a crumbling coalition government and the emerging threat of the election of a radical government. By delaying Kosovo's independence, the West hopes to raise the chances of a more cooperative government getting elected in Serbia in December -- and it hopes to keep Kosovo as a card to play against Serbia if the radicals do come to power there. Analysis The United Nations on Oct. 19 extended the mandate of its Special Envoy for Kosovo Marti Ahtisaari from November until June 2007, which gives the United Nations the option to hold off on granting Kosovo's independence. Though Kosovo's independence is pretty much a given in the European Union and NATO's eyes, timing is of the utmost importance. The United Nations was to decide on Kosovo's independence by November, but recent events in Serbia have forced the United Nations to step back and reconsider the radically different paths an unstable Serbia could follow. The West -- meaning the European Union and NATO -- wants to hold onto the Kosovo card in case it is needed to keep Serbia in line. Serbia's parliament recently approved a new constitution, and the country will finally be able to hold general government elections before the year's end. The Serbian Constitution was nullified when its Montenegro region gained its independence in May. The newly ratified constitution names Kosovo as a Serbian province; if Kosovo gains its independence, the constitution will again be nullified. Moreover, moments after the constitution was approved, the pro-EU G17 Plus party quit Serbia's ruling coalition, triggering a political crisis. G17 Plus quit to protest the government's failure to hand over accused war criminal Ratko Mladic to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Mladic's arrest is a condition the European Union set for Serbia to resume accession negotiations. Serbia now has two options: follow the nationalist path, or join the European Union and NATO. If Kosovo gains its independence before the country's general election, Serbians will more than likely vote for a nationalistic radical government. A delay in the Kosovo decision gives Serbia a chance to elect a less-nationalistic government -- one more willing to work with the West and less willing to allow Serbia to fall into the black hole of its past. Serbian democrats have been lobbying for the delay, and it seems the West has jumped on board. The West knows Serbia is still at risk of going radical even if the Kosovo decision is made after the elections -- a problem that would likely destabilize the entire Balkan region and other secessionist areas. If the radicals do take control in Serbia, the West will still have the Kosovo card to play against Serbia to keep the radicals in line. There is one small problem with this strategy, however: the Kosovar Albanians, who make up more than 90 percent of the province's population. They have been waiting for independence for seven years. Kosovar Prime Minister Agim Ceku warned Oct. 16 that delaying the decision on independence could escalate conflict in the Balkans. [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] =============== Group Moderator: [EMAIL PROTECTED] page at http://magazine.sorabia.net for more informations about current situation in Serbia http://www.sorabia.net Slusajte GLAS SORABIJE nas talk internet-radio (Serbian Only) http://radio.sorabia.net Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sorabia/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/sorabia/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
