Kosovo at the brink
The Serb province may soon declare independence which might bring violence ISABEL VINCENT | November 28, 2007 | Following one of modern history's costliest international aid efforts and several rounds of high-level negotiations, there is still no resolution in sight for the future of Kosovo. But the world is just days away from a United Nations-imposed deadline for a troika of EU, U.S. and Russian mediators to negotiate a solution on governance of the predominantly Albanian southern province of Serbia, an area considered by Serbs to be the cradle of their civilization. For its part, the Serbian government has proposed various solutions. The latest is a system similar to the administration of Finland's Ã…land Islands, where the Swedish majority has enjoyed autonomy while being loyal to the central government in Helsinki for eight decades. The Serbian minister for Kosovo, Slobodan Samardzic, had also floated a Hong Kong-style autonomy package for the ethnic Albanian majority in the province, which was flatly rejected by the other side. The ethnic Albanian negotiators say they want nothing short of independence for the province, which is home to 1.8 million ethnic Albanians and some 110,000 Serbs,who have faced intense discrimination since the war between Albanian guerrillas and Serbia ended with NATO's intervention in 1999 and Kosovo became a UN protectorate. Former ethnic Albanian warlord Hashim Thaci, who emerged victorious in parliamentary elections in November that were boycotted by the Serb minority, vowed to unilaterally declare independence soon after the Dec. 10 deadline set for the international troika to report. However, Thaci, who will likely become the next prime minister of Kosovo, also said that he will work closely with the United States and the EU, which mostly back his position. "Kosovo is ready for independence, but we will do nothing without coordination with our partners Washington and Brussels," said Thaci, who used to be known as "the Snake" when he was leader of the Kosovo Liberation Army. But despite promises of support from some heavyweight members of the international community, other world leaders say unilateral independence for Kosovo will set a dangerous precedent in the region, and elsewhere. Russia, Serbia's strongest ally, has threatened to veto any UN plan for Kosovar independence. Cyprus and Greece, also long-time allies of Serbia, have said that they, too, are opposed to unilateral independence for Kosovo. These countries, along with Romania, Spain and Slovakia, fear that an independent Kosovo could spark other minorities in their own territories to declare independence. "Their [the ethnic Albanian] position contradicts international law," says Dusan Batakovic, a historian and the recently installed Serbian ambassador to Canada. Batakovic, one of the world's leading experts on Kosovo, is a former negotiator for the Serb government on the status of Kosovo. For Batakovic, Kosovo cannot demand independence under international law because the status was denied to Serbs and Croats in Bosnia. "It will provoke regional instability," said Batakovic, who says that other minorities will clamour to follow in the Kosovo model if independence is granted under international law. "Kosovo is completely unprepared for changing status because there are no democratic institutions and no protection in place for the Serb minority in the province." Since 1999, after a 78-day NATO bombing campaign ended the war, Kosovo has been run as a UN protectorate, backed up by a 16,000-strong NATO peacekeeping force. The eight-year operation, which has reportedly cost the international community more than $8 billion, has been one of the costliest per capita aid packages since the Second World War. Critics say the UN presence has done little to encourage economic development or contribute to the growth of democratic institutions in the province. Unemployment currently stands at 63 per cent for ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, and 93 per cent for the minority Serbs, many of whom cannot find employment because of intense discrimination. Thousands of Serbs currently live in one apartment bloc, heavily guarded by NATO forces, in the Kosovar capital Pristina. According to Batakovic and others, more than two-thirds of ethnic Serbs have been forced out of Kosovo since the end of the NATO intervention in 1999. Moreover, 70 per cent of Kosovo's Roma population has also been expelled. In the eight years since the UN has been in charge, security in the province has deteriorated, with attacks against ethnic Serbs and on Orthodox churches in the region. Since 1999, 140 churches have been destroyed, and 40,000 Serb-owned properties have been illegally taken over by ethnic Albanians, Serbian officials say (most ethnic Albanians are Muslim). "Kosovo has become an intolerant society based on a collective vendetta, where there is no basic security, no freedom of movement throughout the province, and no respect for democracy," said Batakovic in a recent interview from Ottawa. "You saw it in the low turnout during the elections Albanians don't trust the warlords to rule and many of them know that they will use independence to enrich themselves." Indeed, Kosovo has long been a trans-shipment point for heroin from Afghanistan, a trade controlled by some of the province's most powerful warlords. With no deal likely to be hammered out before the UN deadline, negotiators say the decision on the status of the province will simply be delayed. However, it is widely expected that Thaci and his supporters will declare independence by the new year. The EU's envoy to the talks, German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger, has remained optimistic that a deal can be reached. Ischinger, backed by the U.S., said that "a status neutral" pact is possible, in which Belgrade and Pristina agree on a series of practical measures, such as trade, without addressing independence. But if unilateral independence is accepted for Kosovo, with no compromises to Serbia, it may lead to violence from Serb nationalists, as Serb negotiators have long argued. Serbian officials hope that the two sides can still find a mutually acceptable agreement that obeys the UN charter in international law under which minorities are protected and democratic institutions are respected. Many Serbs feel that international support for the ethnic Albanian side derives from leftover feelings of mistrust of Serbia when it was ruled by strongman Slobodan Milosevic and his thugs, who fomented a series of nationalistic wars in the 1990s in order to bolster their own hold on power. During that time in Kosovo where Serbs are now on the receiving end of injustice thousands of ethnic Albanians were driven from their homes in a brutal ethnic cleansing campaign by Serb secret police and paramilitaries. "Unfortunately, all Serbs are still seen as an extension of the Milosevic regime," said Batakovic. "But Serbia is a different place after Milosevic, where 80 per cent of the population want to join the EU, and where people participate in a functional democracy, which contributes to regional security." http://www.macleans.ca/world/global/article.jsp?content=20071128_103406_1034 06 =============== Group Moderator: [Е-ПОШТА ЗАШТИЋЕНА] page at http://magazine.sorabia.net for more informations about current situation in Serbia http://www.sorabia.net Slusajte GLAS SORABIJE nas talk internet-radio (Serbian Only) http://radio.sorabia.net Yahoo! 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