-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Yes Bank: Transforming Itself From Corp. To Retail Lender ?
Date: Fri, 27 Nov 2015 08:56:38 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*For Yes Bk, 730-710 area may be a good buying zone*
*Near term target may be 780-800 *
Decreasing fresh corporate exposoure and increasing retail lending
may help in the near term
*CMP: 750*
*
*
*Either buy on sustained break out above 760 or wait for dips around:
730-720-710*
*
*
*TGT: 780-800* (1-3M)*
*
*
*TGT: 855-905-1025-1065 (12-24M)*
*
*
*TSL<690*
Note: Consecutive closing below 690 for any reason, Yes Bk can fall up
to 674-640-620-595* and 560-520 zone in the alternative worst case
scenario. But, time & price action suggests that 620-595 may be a very
good demand zone for the stock in that scenario and one can again
accumulate from there for better investment buying average.
Q2FY16 result was above street estimates but lagged asset quality
concerns. Q2 PAT was around Rs.610 cr against median expectation of
Rs.593 cr, registered a growth of around 26% (YOY-482 & QOQ-551).
Q2 EPS was at 14.25 against consensus of 13.66 (YOY-11.38 & QOQ-12.85).
Q2 NII was at Rs.1108.5 cr against estimate of Rs.1085.80 cr; up by
almost 29.5% YOY.
Although NII margin was expanded by 0.10% to 3.3% on YOY basis,
sequentially it was almost flat.
In Q2FY16, net NPA of Yes Bk shot up by around 49% sequentially and 194%
on YOY basis to Rs.159 cr.
Thus in Q2, strong NII, other income (fees etc) and operating profit
(leverage) helped Yes Bk, but higher provisions and tax liability
limited its overall profitability.
The bank has also cut down overall corporate loan exposoure amid
increasingly stretched corporate balance sheets and trying to diversify
and expand into high margin, low risk retail lending. The management is
quite confident of retaining its NII margin of around 3.3% in the coming
quarters on the back of increase in low cost CASA and cut in its
deposit rates (due to base rate cut transmissions) in the coming quarters.
To be cont for more news and analytics inputs-----
*As par BG metrics & current market parameters:*
(Based on TTM & FWD EPS)
Present median valuation of Yes Bank may be around: 835(FY:15/TTM)
Projected fair valuations of Yes Bank might be around : 870-945-1005
(FY:16-18/FWD)
(It is now available at comparatively lower PE of around 14 against
industry average of around 20).
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
YESBANK 51.57 278.69 18 838.08 830.89 834.48 756.66 743.73
YESBANK 55.75 367.95 18 871.38 863.91 867.64 756.66 743.73
YESBANK 65.55 485.75 18 944.87 936.76 940.82 756.66 743.73
YESBANK 74.35 641.95 18 1006.30 997.66 1001.98
756.66 743.73
* Analytical Charts:*
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wBKoXc395Qg/VlfKFXyaS-I/AAAAAAAAFBc/gJo-sVthpmM/s1600/Yes-26-11-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_bViLeT3YXQ/VlfKHfRW76I/AAAAAAAAFBk/9m-lnCrACnA/s1600/Yes-Fibb-26-11-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-W2CZ3RBNoP0/VlfKKZ07qjI/AAAAAAAAFBs/VQLNnrtT42o/s1600/Yes-WK-26-11-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pD5FCiuuK3g/VlfKOYWXdgI/AAAAAAAAFB0/kF1IPTryBq0/s1600/Yes-Pattern-26-11-2015.png>
<http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yuCo8lACSLw/VlfKR3WIKMI/AAAAAAAAFB8/Xrp7YPHm3XM/s1600/Yes-TL-26-11-2015.png>
<http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IooTd-TUKyo/VlfKULZljCI/AAAAAAAAFCE/ryapMyMMF28/s1600/Yes-PATTERN-LT-26-11-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.in)
NCFM-TA Certified)
--
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