Market Mantra: 10/07/2017 (08:30)
SGX-NF: 96885 (+17 points)
For the Day:
*Key support for NF: 9615-9580*
*Key resistance for NF: 9725-9775*
*Key support for BNF: 23300-23100*
*Key resistance for BNF: 23575-23800*
*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9725 area for
further rally towards 9775-9835 & 9875-9915 in the short term (under
bullish case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 9705 area, NF may fall towards
9655/9615-9580 & 9535-9485 & area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 23575 area for further rally towards
23650-23800 & 23900-24050 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 23525-23400 area, BNF may fall
towards 23300-23100 & 23000-22800 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).*
.As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (July) may open around 9685,
after recovering from early losses in SGX in the opening minutes (LOS:
9619) amid news of SEBI restrictions on P-Notes derivatives. SGX-NF
recovered quite smartly tracing positive Global/Asian cues after upbeat
NFP job data on Friday and PPI data this morning from China. An upbeat
PPI from China @5.5% in June may be supportive for the
inflation/reflation savvy DM economy (EU/US) as China is still the
manufacturing power house of the world.
Overnight US market (DJ-30) also closed higher (+0.44%) on Friday
weekend amid mixed/upbeat US NFP job data.
As P-Notes now don’t have significant volume now, there may not be any
significant volatility; the market buzz of P-Notes backed FNO Short
Positions of Rs.40k cr (?) may not be true; but P-Notes holder may not
also like to take huge long positions in SPOT without any hedge and
eventually either exit Indian market or hedge partially through SGX
(Nifty Fut).
Another point is that P-notes derivatives holders may also cover their
shorts (hedge) in the FNO and convert all the longs in stocks into spots
or simply book both the long & shorts (positive to neutral impact);
Pharma, PSBS, IT, Telecom may see some short covering amid P-Note FNO SQ
UP; but spot may not respond so much.
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aasUDNDEcp4/WWL8oU9pLII/AAAAAAAAMTk/rxWi7vppqxkNkuu9gNJKKOFKQ66oWhEAgCLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-10-07-2017.png>
SGX-NF
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Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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