-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Nifty Fut (Aug): 8325-8280 Zone Is Crucial Now, Sustain Below
That, We May Be Heading For 8000-7900 Area---Rate Cut & GST Hope May Help
Date: Thu, 13 Aug 2015 09:05:44 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
_*Technical Analysis:*_
NF (LTP:8368; SGX:8373) has now good positional support zone of around
8325-8280 zone and consecutive closing below that, it may fall to
8245-8219 and 8154-8135 in the immediate to short term. Only sustaining
below 8135, there is a high probability that NF will be further dragged
to 8045-8000 & 7930-7880 territory in the near future (bear case
probability).
On the upside, sustaining above 8325, NF has to break 8380-8410 area and
sustaining above that 8456-8485-8513 zone might be the target in the
immediate to short term. Only consecutive closing above 8513, it may
further rally towards 8550-8600 & 8640-8675 territory in the near term.
Further, on the up side, only consecutive closing above 8675, NF may
scale up to 8760 (bullish scenario probability).
_*Technical Trading Levels (Positional)*_
Gap Up/Dw (Indicative)
SGX NIFTY 8368 -5
NF-Aug LTP 8373
SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR
Intraday Swing Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 8345 8380-410* 8456-85 8513-50
8600-75* 8700-60 <8325
Weak < 8325 8299-80* 8245-19 8180-35
8075-45 8000-7930 >8345
FOR Conservative Positional Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 8345 8410* 8485 8550 8675* 8760 <8325
Weak < 8325 8280* 8219 8135 8045 7930-7880
>8345
_*Some Rationale:*_
Its a mere coincidence that when we are trading near a charted strong
supply zone (NF:8600-8675), China Yuan devaluation and GST fiasco
(parliament logjam) hits us at the same time. The result is there.
Market is basically confusing for this Chinese style of QE and why it is
so desperate ? Is it because China is dedicated to show 7% growth at any
cost or there is something serious in its economy, that we don't know
and officials are panicking ? In any way, Yuan devaluation means further
cheap Chinese exports and depressed global commodity prices in the days
ahead. Most probably, Fed has some excuse now to delay "planned rate
hike" from Sep to Dec'15 for disinflation fear. There is a high
probability that Fed continue to be in the side line even after Dec'15
for various macro economic & global factors (as USD is quite strong and
hurting US economy too). Going by the depressed commodity prices and
Chinese action, Canada may be in the next pipe line for its own QE among
G6 countries.
Going forward, Chinese devaluation may be at the near end, as it will be
prudent for them to make balancing act for its exporters and serious
massive capital outflows.
Back to our home, we may see a out of policy rate cut by RBI very
shortly amid this so called "global currency war" and our lower CPI
figure released yesterday evening.
As the parliamentary logjam (political drama) continues and today being
the last day of the monsoon session, all eyes will be on our
politicians, some of whom are wasting our hard earned tax payers money.
As par rough estimate, total cost of MP(s) for five years is around
Rs.950 cr alone !!
In any way, if GST will be not passed today in RS, then there may be
short session or even joint session of parliament to pass it, as it
appears that Govt is determined now and there is huge pressure on the
"responsible oppositions" to pass it either.
If GST is passed, there is a high probability that, we will head for
8675-8760 zone in the near term.
In the event, if there is no GST or any hope for it in the near future,
we may be heading for 7900 zone in the immediate future too.
_*Technical Charts:*_
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-btN0pTa59VY/VcwOBfcSBCI/AAAAAAAADvM/jF2k0YK-Ov0/s1600/NF-12-08-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7TdmClQsKug/VcwOMFlhCTI/AAAAAAAADvU/gF3T674hJCk/s1600/NF-FIBB-12-08-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-asXawFqB0xU/VcwOPQDZvlI/AAAAAAAADvc/BxyUol42Yww/s1600/NF-WK-12-08-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-a26FZQ5-V-o/VcwOReV0b8I/AAAAAAAADvk/MQQLDE9Fgvc/s1600/NF-TL-12-08-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MBXyRQcHpJc/VcwOUP5BLmI/AAAAAAAADvs/STAQ9h--zus/s1600/NF-PATTERN-12-08-2015.png>
<http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-B0eswI7aIHY/VcwOXMugvmI/AAAAAAAADv0/3BPYSSDksSg/s1600/NF-PATTERN-MT-12-08-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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