-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Market Mantra: Nifty Fut (Dec) Update
Date: Tue, 29 Dec 2015 09:07:35 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
SGX NF:7926
NSE NF: 7904
As par early morning SGX indication, NSE NF may open around 7925 area
after steady overnight US market amid initial China & oil woes. There
were some market buzz of Chinese corporate debt defaults yesterday and
Chinese as well as global market dipped initially amid low volumes.
*Technically, NF need to sustain over 7950-7980 zone for an immediate
target of 8005-8055.*
*On the downside, sustain below 7915-7880 it may fall towards 7855-7820
and 7780-7725 in the next few trading days.*
It appears that absence of FII selling is helping a lot in the "Santa"
rally for our market along with year end NAV window dressing; still we
are down around 7% YOY in Nifty.
Going forward, Oil may be the one the biggest headwinds for global
markets as well as EM for 2016. Some analysts believe that although
lower oil prices are beneficial for major oil importing economies (such
as India/China/EU), it has its darker side too. Not only that, lower oil
prices already shelving projects worth billion of dollars, but it may
also accelerate out flow of surplus cash from EM equities, bonds
portfolio by the oil producing economies.
In the past, these oil producing economies has invested huge amount of
their surplus cash into EM countries for better yield and and that has
helped to finance the current account deficit of may EM countries too.
In short, oil producing economies are provider of trillion dollar
liquidity in the global financial system and if oil goes down to $30-25
for any reason and stay there for prolonged time (demand supply mismatch
and increasing global green initiatives), we may see serious outflow of
petro dollar and panic in the global as well as EM financial system in
2016. Already various OPEC countries including Saudi Arabia are in some
turmoil. Also, due to lower oil prices, Canada's (G6 country) economy
was not in great shape in 2015 and 2016 is also not looking brighter at
this moment.
For our market, investors may wait for another three months up to March
budget session to see the outcome of GST passage and possibility of any
"dream" budget apart from Q3 results in Jan-Feb. Till then, 7500-8000
may be the broad Nifty range.
*
*
*Analytical Charts:*
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Hcdqc9BPc8I/VoH9bJHV1xI/AAAAAAAAFc8/YL1dqI8-dR8/s1600/NF-28-12-2015.png>
<http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-j3uZjUDMXIA/VoH9dSQglVI/AAAAAAAAFdE/f_0ieTHL1Vw/s1600/NF-FIBB-28-12-2015.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
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