-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Just Dial: Sustain Blw 585-605, may dial again 445-375
Date: Fri, 19 Feb 2016 10:27:41 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Consecutive closing below 445-375 zone, JD may fall up to 295-235*
Buy back not so much attractive as it apparently seems;
Such buy back also proves that the company has no viable business plan
to deploy its cash
And its returning its cash to the big shareholders.
*CMP: 552*
*Sell either below 585 or on rise around 605-625-650;*
*TGT1: 491-445*-425-375 (1-3 M)*
*TGT2: 345-315-295*-235 (12-24M)*
*TSL> 670*
Note: Consecutive (3 days) closing above 670 for any reason, JD may
further rally towards 715-760 & 800-840* and 885-950-1105-1250 zone in
the alternative bullish case scenario.
With actual TTM EPS of 21.80, JD is quoting at around 25 PE against
Google's average PE of 30.Comparison to Google's free search popularity
and ad revenue JD is nothing and paid search concept may be a fiction.
Reasonable PE of JD may be around 20-15, even after considering their
"Search Plus" and planned "JD-OMNI" application (which is also dubbed as
"Mother of all application" by the management !!).
JD's proposed buy back of shares at price up to 1550 per share for
around 11 lac shares (record date 04/12/2015) translates that the
company will buy back only 2-3% from the market ( i.e. on average 2-3
shares per 100 shares).
As on 02/12/2015 (T+2), closing price of JD was around 915. Clearly, big
investors, who sold some of their holdings after that, may now covering
that for tendering the same for buy back by the company, which will
start from 25/02/2016. Investors has to pay also 10% capital gain tax
for such offline buy back process. Thus the buy back is not looked so
rosy as it apparently seems.
*As par BG metrics and current market scenario:*
(based on actual TTM & projected FWD EPS)
Present median valuation of JD may be around: 485 (FY:15/TTM)
Projected fair valuation might be around: 455-485-520 (FY:16-18/FWD)
SCRIP EPS(TTM) BV(Act) P/E(AVG) Low High Median
200-DEMA 10-DEMA
JUSTDIAL 21.8 95.46 15 552.69 411.68 482.19 934.16 518.3
JUSTDIAL 19.25 114.5 15 519.36 386.86 453.11 934.16 518.3
JUSTDIAL 21.75 137.75 15 552.06 411.21 481.64 934.16 518.3
JUSTDIAL 25.05 165.85 15 592.46 441.31 516.88 934.16 518.3
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vqL5BKL-DzI/VsaMRZv7EmI/AAAAAAAAGL4/_fwHirWnDcQ/s1600/JD-18-02-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ss5hu8PwLxs/VsaMTB8JfZI/AAAAAAAAGL8/tW12_dTAg0o/s1600/JD-FIBB-18-02-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2TVyCAefcC0/VsaMVHecrsI/AAAAAAAAGMA/CvDfSxLQeW4/s1600/JD-WK-18-02-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jiWz2vJmA5A/VsaMXaBt0_I/AAAAAAAAGME/6qhSQ0qjGxA/s1600/JD-TL-18-02-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6O7JgJ2qxrM/VsaMZY7nlBI/AAAAAAAAGMI/w7eLzATpuIw/s1600/JD-PATTERN-18-02-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2sC7bBVfgYY/VsaMbVQAhAI/AAAAAAAAGMM/JtAvl-n2MUU/s1600/JD-PATTERN-MT-18-02-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA CERTIFIED
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