-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Global & Indian Market Update : Can G-20 Meet Help A Bit ?
Date: Fri, 26 Feb 2016 09:14:42 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Trading Idea: NSE NF (Mar)*
SGX NF: 7080 (CMP)
NSE-NF: 7001 (LIP-ADJ)
Either sell below 7115 or on rise around 7150;
TGT: 7050-7025*-6960*-6925-6900-6860 (1-5 days)
TSL> 7170-7195
Note: Consecutive closing above 7195 zone, NF may further rally towards
7225-7295 & 7315-7375 area in the near term (alternative bullish case
scenario from the present trading level).
In the near term, NF has to sustain over 7375-7410 zone for further
rally up to 7580-7655 zone. On the downside, consecutive closing below
6860, NF may further fall towards 6775-6565 & 6480-6335 zone in the days
ahead, depending upon the budget news flow.
Yesterday's railway budget may be indicating that Govt may present a
rural economy oriented budget on Monday aiming at the forthcoming state
elections. With little hope of any "dream budget" this time, all eyes
will be on fiscal deficit road map, Govt's capex & borrowings to
stimulate our economy and tax/LTCG treatment. Going by the current
global & local/domestic market turmoil, Govt may not choose to tinker
with LTCG this time as this may cause more market meltdown at our end.
Unless and until, global sentiment improves and there are some visible
structural improvement, nothing will work for our market. Also, our
market may likely to see some actual earnings improvement and policy
reform (GST etc) and an road map for the PSBS recapitalization amid the
ongoing NPA mess.
Yesterday's announcement in the SDR mechanism by the RBI may help some
PSBS in the short term, but huge capital and interest rate policy reform
may be required for a long term solution. India's real rate of interest
is too high & its an expensive economy & cost of doing business is also
high (as incremental benefit of lower oil prices was not transmitted to
the consumers/economy and there are various high regulatory charges).
Also, political landscape is fast changing and people are loosing faith
in NAMO/Modinomics amid various socio political issues. Recent, Jat
vandalism in Haryana may caused significant loss of confidence among
investors of doing business in India.
After yesterday's late oil rally ($0.82~2.5%) amid speculation of yet
another production cut meeting between OPEC & Non-OPEC members in March
as told by Russian Oil minister, SPF reversed the direction and now
trading around 1950.
*Technically, SPF has to now sustain over 1950-1960 zone for any
strength and in that scenario, it may rally up to 1975-2000 & 2035-2075
and 2095-2110 zone. On the flip side, unable to sustain over 1960 area,
it may again fall towards 1910-1867 & 1824-1804 zone in the near term.*
*For Crude (CMP: $33), formidable technical hurdle is 34-35.50 zone and
only consecutive closing above that it may further rally up to 38-41. On
the flip side, sustain below 30.40, it may again fall towards 26-25 zone
in the near term.*
Globally all eyes will be on the G-20 meet currently going on in China
and comments by various Central bankers/FM(s). There are some market
talk that, after this summit, China may announce significant Yuan
devaluation road map as a part of co-ordinated policy action by the
major global CB(s).
Apart from China, Oil, probable EU/US recession, there will be also
Brexit issues and all this may be an ideal landscape for the Fed to take
an wait & watch stance in 2016, with out any rate hike and probability
of an US NIRP will also be there.
Analytical Charts:
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-j-uJH1WKFrw/Vs_Hy1xVr3I/AAAAAAAAGQ8/7Hl-KQlyJnw/s1600/SGX-NF-26-02-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-y10dXE23hAE/Vs_H0qlGv0I/AAAAAAAAGRA/RKH-FgYBd_U/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-26-02-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Tp_PDIUpVWU/Vs_H2z2v6rI/AAAAAAAAGRE/KIItMB91mAY/s1600/SPF-26-02-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eJf5beAhPB0/Vs_H4o7suII/AAAAAAAAGRI/SYUEalPqwgI/s1600/Crude-26-02-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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