-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Nifty Fut (Mar): What's The Tech Saying Ahead Of Budget?
Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 08:54:49 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*NF need to sustain over 7215-7295 zone for any rally towards 7560-7595; *
*Otherwise, it may be weak and below 7015-6960 zone, *
*may again fall towards 6875-6775 area.*
*7-PC based consumption boost may be not sacrosanct *
*as previously expected overall economic recovery magic !!*
*Trading Levels: Nifty Fut (Mar)*
SGX-NF: 7040 (LTP)
NSE-NF: 7061 (LTP)
SL (+/-) 10 POINTS FROM SLR
For Intraday Swing Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 7170 7215-260* 7295-350 7375-435*
7475-490 7560-595* <7150
Weak < 7150 7115-090* 7055-015 6990-940*
6905-875 6850-775* >7170
FOR Conservative Positional Trader
T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 SLR
Strong > 7170 7295* 7375 7435* 7560 7640-750*
<7150
Weak < 7150 7090* 7015 6940* 6875 6775-570*
>7170
After no G-20 co-ordinated CB action on Saturday, global markets are
trading somewhat lower as various statements by G-20 leaders apparently
showed that they are not so much "concerned" about the current global
market turmoil and they will continue to keep "close watch" on the FX
world/market.
Back to home, as par our PM, today may be an "exam day" for him/his
Govt, being the budget day.
Some of the important highlights, market will watch for this budget:
FY-16 actual fiscal deficit figure, which is likely to be between
3.7-3.9% of GDP.
FY:17-18-19 FRBM road map, which is expected between 3.5-3% of GDP. Too
much deviation from the previously announced FRBM targets, may attract
rating agencies action/downgrade.
FY-17 gross borrowing targets & capex for the Govt. A strong dose of
infra spending is expected to compensate for the poor private sector
investment, even at the cost of some fiscal consolidation.
7-PC/OROP implementation road map, which is expected to stagger over
three years. Some measure to boost consumption through direct tax
concessions, like SD increased from Rs.2 lakhs to Rs.3 lakhs and few
more sops are expected.
1% cut in corporate tax as par plan of 25 to 20% within 2019 with
exemptions withdrawal (revenue neutral for Govt, but overall some net
higher tax outgo for some corporates also).
Hike in service tax from present 14.5% to around 18% as par GST road map
(negative for overall economy as it may result in somehow higher
inflation, with virtually no hope for GST implementation even by FY-17;
in the back drop of current political scenario and forthcoming state
elections, there is little hope for any consensus regarding passage of
important bills like GST in the RS).
PSBS recapitalization road map apart from the present "Indradhanush".
Higher lock in period for LTCG from present 1 to 3 year is expected; but
in the present scenario of weak market sentiment, Govt may not choose to
tinker with these.
Govt is expected to abolish DDT & STT; but taking into the revenue
angle, Govt may not oblige for any STT cut.
Some Budgetary steps to boost rural economy & social sector spending
aiming for the coming five state elections (in which BJP is expected to
loose in all the states !!).
FY-17 divestment plan, strategic sales of Govt assets (non-core PSUS to
fund PSBS)
Road map for "Start Up" & "Make In India" funding.
Road map for subsidy rationalization.
After no such economic recovery as highly expected in the last two
years, market is now keeping hope on 7-PC based demand & consumption
growth. But, given the staggered nature of the implementation and the
current subdued market condition and tepid confidence of the Indian
consumers, no big-bang consumption may actually happen apart from some
low ticket ones.
Its not sacrosanct that people will start into buying spree as soon as
they got the 7-PC arrears; instead they may go into savings mode for
their future generations.
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FgSLCzpSwok/VtO32sP6klI/AAAAAAAAGSo/S0vOvNmgnD8/s1600/NF-26-02-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fOSQwNCyVuk/VtO35UYHbNI/AAAAAAAAGSs/rYyfWWvEfdE/s1600/NF-FIBB-26-02-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-UaZJ3BLJ3Gw/VtO37ZLQQiI/AAAAAAAAGSw/tiVd3cNM-FY/s1600/NF-WK-26-02-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9NRigK81jCQ/VtO39FmS07I/AAAAAAAAGS0/vGVEHduLABg/s1600/NF-TL-26-02-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xERaAZjmfiI/VtO3-1PxBhI/AAAAAAAAGS4/ibx1C7EhW7I/s1600/NF-PATTERN-26-02-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-lpmRQhCBGXk/VtO4AZ2Ca6I/AAAAAAAAGS8/5iwMJfdh3aA/s1600/NF-EW-26-02-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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