-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Nifty Fut(June): 8125-8185 Zone Will Be Vital For This NAMO
Inspired Rally To Continue (2-nd Anniversary)
Date: Fri, 27 May 2016 09:13:12 +0530
From: Asis Ghosh <asis...@gmail.com>
Reply-To: asis...@gmail.com
*Trading Idea: Nifty Fut (June)*
*
*
*SGX-NF: 8100 (CMP)*
*
*
*NSE-NF: 8070 (LTP)*
*
*
*Either sell around 8125-8165 OR on rise around 8210-8250;*
*
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*TGT: 7999*-7905-7845-7775-7690*-7655-7585-7525*-7480-7440 (5-15 days)*
*
*
*TSL> 8185 OR > 8295*
*Note:* Consecutive closing (3 days) above 8185-8295 zone for any
reason, NF may further rally up to 8350-8405*-8520-8685 in the near term
(alternative bullish case scenario from the present trading level).
NF made a smart rally from the vital positional support zone of 7700
almost in a T-20 style on the back of some global market "risk on",
"upgrade" of Indian market from previous "downgrade" by some
institutions (a gift to the nation amid NAMO-2-nd year anniversary ??),
better monsoon prediction by Skymet (although delayed and probability of
87% of normal rain in June) and better than expected earnings by some of
the blue chips.
Now going forward, immediate drivers of the market will be Fed & RBI
stance and passage of GST in the forthcoming monsoon session along with
recapitalization of the PSBS amid record NPA provisions.
Going by the current inflation trajectory, intensive drought situation
in major parts of India and its effect on food inflation, RBI may not
oblige for a 0.25% rate cut on 6-th June and may wait for actual Fed
stance on 16-th June, Brexit vote outcome, actual progress &
distribution of monsoon and may wait for August for any possible rate
cut. It will be also very unusual for RBI to cut rates in two successive
meets and instead it may focus more on the present liquidity situation
and full transmission of the previous 1.50% rate cuts (as only
0.60-0.75% was transmitted by the banks so far).
Although INC suffered a major set back in the recent state elections,
BJP is also neither a major beneficiary of that except some consolation
in Assam. BJP+ has got total seats of around 90 this time which was
around 285 in the last 2014 Parliament election. Clearly, various
regional political parties will influence more in the days ahead and
that is also negative for the overall reform & its implementation
process in our country.
As of now, it will be very difficult for the Govt to pass GST in the RS
without Cong's support and even if there is vote on this, it will be
also difficult to gather all the other "opposition" votes to defeat Cong
in the RS. Even if, GST will pass in by FY-17, its actual implementation
may happen only after 2019 election as it seems that BJP/RSS too are not
sure about its inflationary effect on the economy/common people because
of increase in service & some other taxes. If Govt is very serious about
GST, it may pass that in the last year itself by calling joint session
of parliament without seeking for Cong's help. In any way, a faulty &
doubtful GST is not good for our economy too !!.
Regarding present ongoing Fed drama, all eyes will be on Yellen speech
today & on 6-th June and Fed has a hard time to convince market that
every meeting is "live" including June/July. Nobody is believing in Fed
now and its credibility seems to be at stake.
China credit bubble may be another serious risk for the global market in
the days ahead.
*Analytical Charts:*
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XtNTwvLjyr8/V0fAKZgaIrI/AAAAAAAAHQ0/h3JC7BY8IPICB0FyhWOz-TADeb2J8RMAgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-27-05-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NWx9PwvoZW0/V0fAMXLNUTI/AAAAAAAAHQ4/fnDSWPJeu7AWIdfOP5fr7NcW-AwkCibOACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-FIBB-27-05-2016.png>
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NJYLlvvdgSk/V0fAO42-XGI/AAAAAAAAHQ8/OdIWoijXkIoJnBJ4nKyHgHu5hXUanL0YwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-MA-27-05-2016.png>
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gBMw9saY7ac/V0fAS-bqBhI/AAAAAAAAHRA/PISgtGMwsHwZAPe83GuwCWX1FBZoIq3rgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-TL-27-05-2016.png>
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-17XgVAfSEow/V0fAWt0XICI/AAAAAAAAHRE/RHMq_0LbupI92UOLq6Jrqo7-H3nZ97UowCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-27-05-2016.png>
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7tc7XjKqTm4/V0fAat7ennI/AAAAAAAAHRI/1gXJTqCAfGwvGnSrrmgrP-ZYW3VV3LspgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-ST-27-05-2016.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
(asisghosh.blogspot.com)
NCFM-TA Certified
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