*Watch 8210-8275 & 8060-7995 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open
Around 8180*
*Market Mantra: 30/11/2016 (08:30)*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8180 (+8
points) following tepid global cues amid growing skepticism over any
meaningful OPEC cut or even freeze agreement later in the day. In the
latest OPEC “circus”, although Iran & Iraq has softened their stance,
it’s may not be enough for the Saudis to even attend the meeting.
*Technically, Crude Oil (45.41) may fall significantly below 42 in case
of “no agreement” and may crash towards 32 in the days ahead.*
In case of any “freeze” agreement, it may bounce towards 48 and if there
is any “cut” agreement it may even reach 58-62 levels, depending upon
the fine print/feasibility of the “cut” agreement.
Although, yesterday‘s US economic data came above expectation, specially
GDP & consumer confidence, but the USD was not able to rally much. Some
of the reasons may be continuous Twitter rhetoric by the “President
Trump” and lack of any clear cut guidance for 2017 rate action by Fed as
of now (Forward guidance). Market may be assuming that there may be
another pause of Fed rate hike for at least six months after Dec’16.
Back to home, it seems that the demonetization and “war on black money”
has now turned into another VDS/Amnesty scheme and “digital economy” by
the Govt after keeping the entire nation on banking queues for more than
20 days.
As par latest RBI data, almost 60% of the banned HDICN has entered into
the banking system as of now. As par various reports, another 20% may be
now with the banking chests and the rest 10-20% may be further deposited
with the banks to get it converted. Thus, the much speculated & expected
windfall gain of Rs.3.5 lakh cr by the Govt as a result of similar
reduction of RBI liabilities may not hold good, as almost all the
HDICN(s) will return to the banks. In any case, it should not be
accounted as “profit” of RBI as rightly pointed out by one of the former
RBI Gov.
But, the real question is how much will it help for the Indian
economy/consumption story in the long term, even if 25% of the so called
“black/unaccounted money” gets into system officially after passing so
much hurdles of IT scrutiny?
*Technically, NF (LTP: 8180) has to sustain over 8195-8210* zone for
further rebound towards 8250-8275* & 8310-8375* area for the day (bull
case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 8160*-8135 area, NF may further
fall towards 8095-8065/8040* & 7995-7945* & 7915-7880* zone for the day
(bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18314), has to sustain above 18450 area for
further rally towards 18650-18750* & 18950-19050* zone for the day
(bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 18300 zone, BNF may further fall
towards 18200*-18100 & 17950*-17850 & 17750* area for the day (bear case
scenario).*
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-l5UjAVvqjwA/WD5MEvBFSAI/AAAAAAAAJoc/R1688Um-wYQFrKh9w2a-syEc_qWFgVesgCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-30-11-2016.png>
SGX-NF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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