*Watch 8275-8375 & 8230-8130 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open
Around 8260*
*Market Mantra: 01/12/2016 (08:30)*
As par early SGX indication Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8260 (+6
points), almost flat following tepid global cues after OPEC led
overnight oil rally of around 10%. Japan (Nikkei) trading strong in
Asian session following more depreciation in Yen.
After eight years, OPEC yesterday penned some deal to cut production by
1.2 mpd daily by Jan’17 against some market expectation of 1.4 mpd. As
the market was extremely short on the assumption of no deal, this news,
which also came early yesterday, caused massive short covering and
subsequently oil rallied by almost 10% in a day. Going forward, market
will keenly watch the actual implementation of this deal as in the past
there were several incidences of mistrust among various OPEC nations.
Also, oil above $50, may induce more supplies from US and together with
Trump’s rhetoric about “Oil independence” of America, we may see more US
oil production and less import for the US. Thus, it may not so easy for
the oil to have an optimum demand supply dynamics (rebalancing) even if
one can take the present OPEC deal on its face value.
On the other side, higher oil above $50-60 on a consistent basis can
also put pressure on the oil importing economy such as US, China & also
India.
*In any way, technically Crude Oil (LTP: 49.53), now has to sustain
above 50-53 area for further rally towards 62.50-70.50; else it may fall
again towards 47-44.50 & 42 in an classic example of “buy the news &
sell the fact”.*
Although, theoretically, Oil & USD should have inverse co-relation,
yesterday USD strengthen on the contrary as a result of above estimate
US economic data and upbeat Fed Beige book. All eyes will be on the US
NFP job data tomorrow to have an idea about US economic strength to
withstand 2-3 rate hikes in 2017 after Dec’16. The blockbuster ADP job
data yesterday & the Chicago PMI index has helped the USD significantly
yesterday, despite rally in Oil.
Back to home, Indian market today keenly watch Nov Markit Mfg PMI
(estimate: 52; prior: 54.4) and monthly auto sales data to have an idea
about extent of real damage to the consumption of Indian economy as a
result of demonetization led disruptions.
Market will also watch the ongoing political battle in the Parliament
and the expected banking chaos on the pay week for its next trigger.
*Technically, NF has to sustain above 8275-8295* area for 8335*-8375/95
& 8425*-8445 zone for the day (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 8250-8230* area, NF may further
fall towards 8180-8130* & 8060-8000* zone for the day (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18682) need to sustain above 18750* area for
further rebound towards 18975-19075* & 19200-19300* zone for the day
(under bullish case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 18600* area, BNF may further fall
towards 18500-18330* & 18200*-18100 zone for the day (under bear case
scenario).*
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IgEpMUt5TBQ/WD-dkqgG6KI/AAAAAAAAJpE/Om2Fo-yzFcsg4Qi0vnNVXVjLkNYAVbBdQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-01-12-2016.png>
SGX-NF
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-AcWKpIfCsLU/WD-dlnHopSI/AAAAAAAAJpI/Zo-26KBFZGc3CEw0zqpMbcXXLxmKibi-ACLcB/s1600/BNF-30-11-2016.png>
BNF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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