*Market Mantra: 22/12/2016 (08:30)*
*Watch 8040-7980 & 8135-8210 Zone In Nifty Fut (Dec), Which May Open
Around 8050 Today*
*Banks may be under pressure for not only demonetization related woes
and expected dip in NIM; but also from the proposed change in accounting
norms (Ind-AS-109) to be effective from April’18, which may hurt its
earnings significantly for the short term due to computation of
“expected credit loses” (ECL).*
*Hawkish RBI minutes may also drag the sentiment of the domestic market.*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Dec) may open around 8050 (-27
points), slightly in negative note following tepid global cues and some
fall in oil. Although, US existing home sales came yesterday was better
than expected, it failed to yield any significant positive impact on USD
and some yearend profit booking may cause the Dow to fall by some extent
(-0.19%) as the “much awaited historical milestone” of 20k remains
elusive by some small distance.
Oil was also under pressure after larger than expected inventory
drawdown. China market is also under some pressure as concern over bond
market & some defaults continues.
Globally, all eyes will be the bailout effort of Monte Paschi & other
Italian banks by the Govt there, as private investors are apparently not
so much interested as of now. Global market will also keenly watch
today’s last data deluge before the Christmas holidays (US GDP, Personal
Consumption, Core PCE & Durable goods order) to have an assessment about
the core strength of the US economy to withstand successive rate hikes
next year (3 dot plots as par Fed so far).
Back to home, all eyes will be on the demonetization & remonetization
fiasco, ongoing political battle, eyeing for not only the 2017 series of
state elections, but also the 2019 general election.; if demonetization
is successful, then there may be no “concerns” for NAMO in 2019
election; but if it fails and bring more chaos, unemployment and
economic slowdown, then RAGA & Co may have the last laugh.
All eyes will be also on the GST meeting today for any consensus; but
hope is very low for an April’17 roll out of the GST this time; may be
the expectation will be shifted towards Sep’17 now.
*_Hints for actionable trade ideas:_*
*Technically, NF has to sustain over 8040 zone today; otherwise it may
further fall towards 7980-7915* & 7875*-7835 area for the day (under
bear case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining above 8075 area, NF may rebound towards
8105/8135*-8185 & 8210*-8275 zone for the day (under bullish case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18095) has to sustain over 17980 area today;
otherwise it may further fall towards 17900*-17800 & 17730-17600* zone
for the day (bear case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining above 18250 zone, BNF may further rebound
towards 18400*-18500 & 18650*-18850 area for the day (bullish case
scenario).*
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2S-_f-hBzmU/WFtN5kCugWI/AAAAAAAAJ5I/d2cdK4meFOsAdTuF2CK6Bl69bpCJC00mACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-22-12-2016.png>
SGX-NF
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-izGzgdGzl2s/WFtN7unAZtI/AAAAAAAAJ5M/W44BOsoJuNwVzhK4pLAXvD6Otd_uRm3qQCLcB/s1600/BNF-21-12-2016.png>
BNF *
*
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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