*Market Mantra: 09/01/2017 (08:30)*
*Watch 8295-8240 & 8335-8375 Zone In Nifty Fut (Jan), Which May Open
Around 8265 Today*
*Apart from start of earning season from tomorrow, all eyes may be on
the Govt/Opposition & EC Stance For Budget Day; Reports That LIC May
Trim Its Equity Investment Target By Rs.10000 cr In FY-17 Due To Adverse
Market Conditions May Also Affect the Sentiment.*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Jan) may open around 8265 (-3
points), almost flat despite positive global cues supported by Friday’s
upbeat US NFP job data.
Although, headline NFP numbers were not good and below estimates, the
hourly wage grew by 0.4% against estimate of 0.3% (prior:-0.1%); on YOY
basis, wage grew by almost 2.9%, which may be a record after June’2009.
This, along with greater participation rate and significant upward
revision of Nov’16 pay roll numbers may be an indication that US economy
is gradually moving towards Fed’s goal of full employment and reasonable
inflation/wage inflation. Thus, Fed may have no alternative, but to go
ahead of its dot plots projection of 2/3 hikes in 2017, depending upon
the actual shape & implementation of “Trumponomics” and as a result,
USD/US bond yields has again resumed its upward journey after brief
pause last week.
Crude oil, which is trading around $54 is also getting stronger as
market is more & more OPEC & Non-OPEC producers are confirming their
part of production cut, despite some usual squabbling and probability of
higher US shale production on the back of better price.
A combination of stronger USD & Oil may not be good for overall Indian
economy and the market.
Domestically, all eyes may be on the duet of Govt, Oppositions & the EC
for any change in budget day ahead of state elections. A “dream budget”
probability this year may be one of the tailwinds of the Indian market
for the near term and any postponement in this regard, may also dampen
the market sentiment.
For UP election, although BJP is now in clear advantage thanks to the
family feud & excellent election strategy by Amit Shah & Co, it may be
too early till now and there are various other factors for a state like
UP (caste & religion based vote bank politics), appeal of a “young &
dynamic” CM candidate like Akhilesh Yadav (BJP has no CM face) and last
of all, demonetization related real pains & unemployment issues among
the “Aam Admi”, especially in the lower end of the pyramid. Thus, it may
not be a smooth affair for BJP also this time despite attempt of
creation for a “NAMO Wave” by demonetization & “war on black
money/corruption” (unlike in 2014). All may be dependent, how
SP/Akhilesh camp quickly recovers from the “family feud” shock and get
its act together for an election fight; otherwise it may be a clean BJP
sweep eventually (positive for the market).
Apart from, demonetization related concerns; earnings may be
significantly affected in Q3 & Q4FY16 for shifting towards Ind-AS
accounting standards (especially for banks as provision related norms
may be severely affected).
*Hints for actionable trading ideas at index level:*
*Technically, NF has to sustain over 8295 zone today for any strength;
otherwise it may fall towards 8240*-8200 & 8140/8120*-8040 area for the
day (under bear case scenario).*
*On the other side, NF has to sustain over 8335 area for further rally
towards 8375-8425* & 8485*-8545 zone for the day (under bullish case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 18317) has to sustain over 18400 zone for any
further strength; otherwise it may fall towards 18250-18100* &
18000*-17800/17600 area for the day (under bear case scenario).*
*On the other side, BNF has to sustain over 18550 area for further rally
towards 18650*-18800 & 19075*-19150 zone for the day (under bullish case
scenario).*
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VF4W1w3U5zo/WHMHyGmZ-_I/AAAAAAAAKFk/k0K1sRShAZoq3Sv-XpvbLgjXjpktgDm0QCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-09-01-2017.png>
SGX-NF
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EpcbaI0VumY/WHMH0xby-cI/AAAAAAAAKFo/OY54sfru954XdH9bFM7X0_U4qfm1b73KACLcB/s1600/BNF-06-01-2017.png>
BNF *
*
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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