*Market Mantra: 15/03/2017 (08:30)*
*SGX-NF: 9125 (+27)*
*Watch 9155-9075 & 9195-9275 Zone In Nifty Fut (March)*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open around 9125 (+27
points), following mixed global cues ahead of Fed. Overnight US market
was weak (-0.21%) on the back of fall in oil (energy shares) as there
was some Saudi confusion of OPEC production cut & storage issue and
bearish comment by the Kuwaiti oil minister (oil is heading to $45). But
after better API report (surprised drawdown of crude oil), Crude oil
recovered from its support area of $47 and now trading around 48.50,
which may be causing some “risk on” sentiment globally. *Technically,
Crude Oil has to sustain at least above 50 for any further strength.*
Apart from Fed, all eyes may be on the outcome of Dutch election to see
the fate of ultra right (anti EU) nationalistic candidate. Also,
development of Brexit may be closely watched after UK Parliament has
gave its nod to invoke A-50. Although A-50 is supposed to be invoked by
March’17, as par latest report, ECB may not permit to officially start
the Brexit negotiation process before Jun’17.
Market may also keenly watch BOJ, SNB & G-20 meet tomorrow. Fed is
widely believed to be in “hawkish hike” mode today; i.e. they may hike
0.25% with guidance of further 2-3 hikes in every quarter end in 2017.
Considering various circumstances & strength of recent US economic data
except wage growth and Trump’s current rhetoric of a weaker USD & actual
trajectory of “Trumponomics”, there may be four Fed scenarios today:
1.Hawkish Hike : USD will further rally; negative for EM & India
2.Dovish Hike: USD will fall to some extent; slight negative for EM & India
3.Hawkish Hold: USD will fall moderately; neutral to positive for EM & India
4.Dovish Hold: USD will fall good; positive for EM & India
But, considering overall trajectory of Indian CPI data & core inflation,
which is hovering around 5% and limitations of further rate cut
transmissions by the banks due to high small savings rate in India, RBI
may be in neutral (owlish) mode, if not hawkish in FY-18; there may not
be any further rate cut by RBI in the foreseeable future irrespective of
Fed action.
Moreover, farm loan waiver issue in UP may have some spiraling effect on
other states also and may also be negative for the banks/state/central
budgets.
*Hints for actionable trading idea:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March) has to sustain
over 9155 area for further rally towards 9195-9235 & 9275-9350 for the
day/in the short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 9135 zone, NF may fall towards
9075-9035 & 8985-8915 area for the day/ in the short term (under bear
case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 21132) has to sustain over 21350 area for further
rally towards 21500-21675 & 21855-22050 area for the day/ in the near
term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 21300 area, BNF may fall towards
21150-21000 & 20900-20700 zone for the day/ in the near term (under bear
case scenario).*
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-hGJc93qXNog/WMi6MYSBiNI/AAAAAAAAK6Q/HC7iXF1rPRsgN8NFY5pcoj76C6keGXrCQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-15-03-2017.png>
SGX-NF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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