*Market Mantra: 16/03/2017 (08:30)*
*SGX-NF: 9175 (+70 points)*
*Watch 9195-9075 & 9235-9275 Zone In Nifty Fut (March)*
Overall, after creating so much buzz or hawkish scripts about
incremental US rate hike in 2017, Fed ultimately delivered somewhat less
hawkish than expected or a “dovish hike” yesterday with a guidance for
further 2 hikes in 2017, most probably in Sep & Dec’17. Markets/USD
bulls were expecting total 4 hikes in 2017 at each & every quarter with
some intention/guidance about shrinking of Fed’s huge balance sheet size
of $4.5 tln. Yellen is not so confident about strength of US economy to
withstand such shrinkage of Fed’s balance sheet, but confident enough to
bring the US rate at normal level; i.e. 1% above US headline CPI or at
least core CPI, which translates a Fed rate of 3-3.75% by 2018-19 from
present 1%.
A 3% Fed rate by 2018-19 may translate around 8 hikes of 0.25% and in
that scenario, Fed may at least hike by another 5-6 times in 2017-18.
USD is bound to recover after initial whipsaws simply because other
central banks (BOJ/ECB) are not considering any hike, at least
officially now.
Another 2 hikes may be normal for US economy, but it may not be good for
EM & Indian market; China today responded by hiking its OMO/MSF reverse
repo rate.
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open gap up, around
9175 (+70 points), following upbeat global cues, except Japan as USD
fall to some extent after Fed/Yellen sounds dovish or rather less
hawkish than expected by the market.
Apart from Fed, Indian market may also look into today’s GST meet to
assess the real probability of a July-Sep’17 roll out.
*Hints for actionable trading idea:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March) has to sustain
over 9235 area for further rally towards 9275-9350 for the day/in the
short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 9195 zone, NF may fall towards
9155-9115 & 9075-9015/8995 area for the day/ in the short term (under
bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF (LTP: 21215) has to sustain over 21350 area for further
rally towards 21500-21675 & 21855-22050 area for the day/in the near
term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 21300 area, BNF may fall towards
21080-20980/900 & 20815-20635 zone for the day/ in the near term (under
bear case scenario).*
<https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NyBDyKEHe4o/WMoNVEU1aPI/AAAAAAAAK7k/otszF_KQsYgLrdMX8FnieJz_OS3xHQhygCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-16-03-2017.png>
SGX-NF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
