*Market Mantra: 21/03/2017 (08:30)*
*SGX-NF: 9180 (+23 points)*
*Watch 9195-9140 & 9235-9275 Zone In Nifty Fut (March)*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (March) may open slight gap up
around 9180 following positive global cues as centrist Prez candidate
(Macron) has won the 1^st election debate (TV) defeating the far
rightist anti EU candidate Li-Pen in France. As a result, concern of an
impending election risk for France (EU) has diminished and precious
metals (Gold/Silver) are being sold along with pressure on Copper
(metals) & commodity currencies (AUD).
Also, USD is getting some strength in the morning Asian session as
commodity currencies are getting weak despite deluge of Fed speakers
overnight, which were so far slightly on the dovish side. As par various
Fed speakers, Fed should hike rates by another 2 times at least if
inflation and other incoming US economic data supports, so that Fed does
not fall behind the inflation curve and can maintain at least neutral US
interest rate, equivalent to the core CPI of the US economy. But,
markets (USD diehard bulls) are expecting at least 4 hikes in 2017 along
with Fed balance sheet squeezing. Also market may be concerned about
actual trajectory of “Trumponomics”, which may not be visible in 2017
and all these has kept the USD in a range, because at the end of the
day, Fed is the only major central bank in the world now, which is
talking and actually implementing multiple rate hikes, whereas all the
others are now only showing as neutral stance.
Back to home, although implementation of GST from July’17 is a known
factor for the market, considering the time & various regulations
factor, corporates & traders community may not be yet ready for its
implementation. Under these circumstances, we might hear that Govt will
let the country to debate more on the GST and let it be implemented from
April’18 or even after 2019, general election, considering that a
hurried launch with so many regulations may also cause another
disruption for the economy.
Farm loan waiver may be another issue, which if implemented in UP, then
other states may also call for such populism at the cost of the
exchequer and that will be not good for the PSBS and also for the
combined fiscal deficit of the Indian economy; if such election rhetoric
is turn reality, then it may be also not good for the market as it may
be seen as Govt is taking the path of populism rather than hard core
reforms.
*Hints for actionable trading idea:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March) has to sustain
over 9235 area for further rally towards 9275-9350 & 9425-9550 for the
day/ in the short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 9215-9195 zone, NF may fall towards
9140/9110-9075 & 9035-8995 area for the day/ in the short term (under
bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21400 area for further rally towards
21500-21675 & 21855-21950 area for the day/ in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 21350 area, BNF may fall towards
21250/21000-20900 & 20800-20600 zone for the day/ in the near term
(under bear case scenario).*
SGX-NF
*<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X8-jhM8jxj0/WNCiHSjavJI/AAAAAAAAK-4/wi4XqSmkI3MXnY5qzV46YqX-j5PztJdrQCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-21-03-2017.png>*
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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