*Market Wrap: 24/03/2017 (19:00)*
*NSE-NF: 9111 (+3 points; +0.04%)*
*NSE-BNF: 21145 (+192 points; +0.92%)*
*For 27/03/2017/Next Week*
*Key support for NF: 9100-9060 & 8995-8950*
*Key resistance for NF: 9150-9195 & 9235-9275*
*Key support for BNF: 21100-20950 & 20800-20700*
*Vital resistance for BNF: 21250-21350 & 21500-21675*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (March) has to sustain
over 9175 area for further rally towards 9195/9215-9235 & 9275-9350 by
next week/ in the short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 9150 area, NF may fall towards
9100-9060 & 9040-8995/50 & 8865/8830 area by next week/ in the short
term (under bear case scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21350 area for further rally towards
21500-21675 & 21800-21950 area by next week/ in the near term (under
bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 21300-21250 area, BNF may fall
towards 21100-20950 & 20800-20600 zone by next week/ in the near term
(under bear case scenario).*
Nifty Fut (March) today closed around 9111, almost flat after making a
session high of 9147 and day low of 9099. Domestic market today opened
in a positive note following FM’s comments about an early & effective
resolution of the NPA mess with the Indian banking system, especially
for the top most 40-50 large stressed accounts in power & infra sectors
(too big to fall). As a result, most of the PSBS (SBI/BOB) and also some
of the private lenders (ICICI) rallied quite smartly. But global concern
on US political squabbling over fate of the affordable health care bill
has dampened the sentiment towards the closing session of the market and
it closed almost flat, well off the day high. Also, stretched valuation
concern may be another head wind for the Indian market as of now.
Today RIL, ITC, Kotak & Yes Bank also provided some support to the
market; but IT stocks were under pressure following reports of H1B visa
bill movement by the US congress, despite earlier rhetoric by the Indian
Govt that it’s not a new & big issue
Although the market is keeping great hope on Govt’s stance of an
immediate resolution of the NPA mess in the line of a super bad bank
(ARC) in PPP mode, as par latest report, Govt may be not in favour of an
idea of such bad bank basically funded by precious tax payer’s money.
Instead, Govt may be planning some new framework to address the NPA mess
including some modifications in the DRT/SARFASI Act. So this is nothing
new and considering the magnitude of the problem, mere transfer of
stressed assets from the balance sheet of the banks to some other places
(bad bank/ARC) may not solve the actual problem of the NPA crisis.
In most of the cases, change of the management may not also work as
there is basic structural problem of the project/business viability on
the back of extreme greed by some of the corporates & commodity super
cycle (2003-08) burst off, legacy issues of comparatively high bank
lending rate & some policy paralysis in India. Unless these basic
structural issues are addressed by the Govt in a proper manner
(appropriate reforms), no management, however efficient it be, can’t
solve these problems. Govt may also find it very difficult for buyers of
such stressed projects, even at throw away prices (deep haircuts), not
only for the issue of project viability, but also for various legal
issues involved with it. There may be much more supply of the stressed
assets than actual demand in India now.
Apart from the issue of NPA, domestic market may also keenly watch
actual progress of GST on the ground and its scheduled implementation
from July’17. As par latest trends, Govt may be able to finalize the
whole GST laws, rate structures etc only by May’17 and in that scenario,
a hurried launch of the same by July’17 may be another nightmare or
disruption for the Indian economy, at least for the short term as
industry/business community and also the administration may find it
quite difficult to cope with it, considering the time constraint and
lack of preparedness. Thus Govt may not be fully confident about its
roll out from July’17 and eventually it may be delayed more towards
April’18 paving the way for more debate about the GST structures &
various real issues with the stakeholders.
Govt may also take some major steps in its ongoing “war on the black
money” after 31^st March or after the budget session, depending upon the
actual response of the last IDS under DeMo.
Globally, all the eyes will be now on Trump’s ability to manage some of
his own RNC members for his health care act plan, which is being seen as
a litmus test for his rhetoric of Trumponomics. Although, considering
the recent history of US politics, eventually it may be passed by Trump
in the last minutes, even after an intense drama (negotiations &
compromise); but the real concern may be the allegation of Russian
contacts with Trump during his election days. We may see some serious
headwinds out of this Russian connection issues for Trump in the coming
days after this issue of Obamacare/Trumpcare, and in that scenario a
full blown US political risk might pose a major threat for the global
market despite perception of a Trumpflation (reflation) trade.
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-eLpQVpsTdLM/WNUyOSgn7kI/AAAAAAAALCU/kJcERz-EA-4oyAHiXpfv6lQMP7N96G79gCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-WK-24-03-2017.png>
SGX-NF
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FYeyGZx2gWE/WNUyVjmj6VI/AAAAAAAALCY/_6UgTMMIbgk52g0ubti1kYFDSVl8ogmGwCLcB/s1600/BNF-WK-24-03-2017.png>
BNF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
--
Kindly email stock reports at
STOCKRESEARCHER@googlegroups.com
For sharing knowledge
-- NIFTYVIEWS.COM NOW A FREE OPEN SOURCE WEBSITE.
http://www.niftyviews.com/
Disclaimer :-
"The opinions expressed by the members on this board are based on
their individual experience and perceptions and to share information
with other members with the best of intentions to help fellow members
in investment decisions as equity investment is a risky venture.The administrator of
www.Niftyviews.com just provide a platform for the authors to express their opinion
and take no guarantee for the genuineness of the same."ANY member of this forum
doesnt prepare or publish any research report; or ii. provide research report; or
iii. make 'buy/sell/hold' recommendation; or iv. give price target;
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Niftyviews.com" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
to stockresearcher+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.