*Market Mantra: 11/04/2017 (08:30)*
*SGX-NF: 9185 (-24 points)*
*Key support for NF: 9180/9165-9135/9095*
*Key resistance for NF: 9255-9305*
*Key support for BNF: 21340-21240*
*Key resistance for BNF: 21675-21775*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Apr) may open gap down around
9185 following renewed geopolitical tensions with NK-US & China. As par
unconfirmed reports, China may be mobilized around 1.5L troops in
response to a proposed US-SK joint military exercise in the region.
Also, Russia has reportedly cut all the communication links with US in
Syria; although US is now downplaying the Syrian missile strikes as “one
off”, it may be also planning to dislodge the pro Russian Assad regime
there to establish “politically” someone of its “own”. Thus, US may be
deeply involved in the Syrian matter to “fight” ISIS and basically to
regain control over the key oil pipelines there.
Yellen’s speech yesterday was nothing new but overall may be termed as
slightly dovish with expectations of the USD bulls. Apart from gradual
hiking depending upon the trajectory of US economy in the coming days,
overall speech of Yellen & also other Fed speakers may be also
indicating an imminent tapering of QE bond holdings in Fed’s balance
sheet and may be also indicating a gradual end of easy money policy of Fed.
Back to home, all eyes may be now on the Q4FY17 earning season in which
market may not be so much optimistic due to various apprehensions like
recent strength in INR (almost 40% Nifty earnings may be related to
overseas); spillover effect of DeMo as there was several
exceptions/opportunities available in Q3 to channelize old DeMo notes.
Also, uncertainties about GST may also force the companies & traders to
reduce the inventory level in the coming days due to no clear policy
date about Input Tax Credit. A high probability of deficient monsoon
this year on the back of renewed El-Nino concern may also dampen the
sentiment of the market in the coming days.
*Technically, for NF, consecutive closing below 9180-9115 for few days
may be also bad for the current bullish momentum of the overall market. *
*Hints for actionable trading idea: Nifty & Bank Nifty Fut*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (Apr) has to sustain over
9180-9225 area for further rally towards 9255-9305 & 9375-9425 in the
short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 9165 area, NF may fall towards
9135-9095 and further 9040 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 21350 area for further rally towards
21450-21650 & 21775 area in the near term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the other side, sustaining below 21300 area, BNF may fall towards
21100-20900 zone in the near term (under bear case scenario).
*
* Analytical Charts: SGX-NF*
**
*<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WW7Vz-1PTh4/WOxSpYY18dI/AAAAAAAALSI/ROO3fqFC7x8MFvKwTtYFMZeCvQa_B9WVACLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-11-04-2017.png>*
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Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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