*Watch 270-260 & 282-292 As Vital Range For ICICI Bank After Worsening
Asset Quality But Better Than Expected NII/PAT*
*Market Mantra: 04/05/2017 (08:30)*
*SGX-NF: 9345 (+8 points)*
*For the Day:*
*Key support for NF: 9295-9235*
*Key resistance for NF: 9405-9475*
*Key support for BNF: 22200-22000*
*Key resistance for BNF: 22525-22675*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut-I may open around 9345, almost
flat following mixed global cues. Overnight US market closed almost
unchanged after some optimistic statement (slightly hawkish) from Fed
yesterday. Although, overall Fed did not give any strong indication
about its likely move (hike or hold) in June, it undermines soft US
economic data in Q1 (job/consumer spending/inflation) and brushed aside
it as purely transitory. Thus, market is assuming it as a strong signal
for a June rate hike and subsequently FFR is now around 92% from 69%
yesterday before Fed. USD/US bond yields are getting bids across the
board and USDJPY is hovering around 113; thus risk mode is “on”.
In the morning Asian session, Japan is also trading in green as JPY got
weakened, but China market is under some pressure after tepid/ below
expected Service PMI data, which is flashed as 51.5 (Apr) against
estimate of 52.6 (prior: 52.6).
Back to home, all eyes may be also on the Indian service PMI data for
Apr (prior: 51.5) and specially on any official announcement from the
Govt for the NPA policy (banking amendment rule), where RBI may be more
empowered to tackle or take action against defaulters to create pressure
for recovery or an effective resolution. Some more NPA policy may also
be announced.
Market/PSBS may be quite upbeat today as a follow up for this NPA
policy; but at a glance, sending defaulters to jail or creating pressure
on them do not simply solve the NPA mess instantly; defaulters/stressed
companies are already in severe pressure either to pay back or bring
their project in line (viable); the underlying structural problem need
to be solved properly.
*Hints for actionable trading ideas for NF & BNF:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over
9425 area for further rally towards 9475-9510 & 9550-9600 in the short
term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On flip side, sustaining below 9405-9385 area, NF may fall towards
9320/9295-9235 & 9175-9115 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 22525 area for further rally towards
22675-22800 & 23000-23200 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 22475 area, BNF may fall towards
22275-22200 & 22100-21950 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9FVV02cx8lc/WQqmxUbstZI/AAAAAAAALkg/IUOUSO0-JaQKdIuXd8QCFyKvKoNMLkTawCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-04-05-2017.png>
SGX-NF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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