*Market Wrap: 23/05/2017 (17:00)*
*NSE-NF (May): 9388 (-55; -0.58%) (TTM PE: 23.82; Near 2 SD of 25; TTM
EPS: 394; NS-9386)*
*NSE-BNF (May): 22575 (-102; -0.45%) (TTM PE: 31.02; Above 3 SD of 30;
TTM EPS: 728; BNS-22583)*
*For 24/05/2017:*
*Key support for NF: 9360/9330-9280/9240*
*Key resistance for NF: 9455/9475-9515/9535*
*Key support for BNF: 22450-22300*
*Key resistance for BNF: 22675-22775*
*Time & Price action suggests that, Nifty Fut (May) has to sustain over
9475 area for further rally towards 9515/9535-9575/9600 & 9680-9770 in
the short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On flip side, sustaining below 9450 area, NF may fall towards
9360/9330-9280 & 9240-9205 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 22675 area for further rally towards
22450-22300 & 22050-21800 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 22625 area, BNF may fall towards
22650-22590 & 22450-22300 area in the near term (under bear case scenario).*
Nifty Fut (May) today closed around 9388, dragged by almost 0.58% lower
after making an opening minutes high of 9464 & day low of 9371 following
news of 2^nd Surgical Strike (Punitive fire assaults) at PAK LOC by the
Indian Army flashed out.
Indian market today opened almost flat following positive/mixed global
cues. Overnight US market closed in positive (+0.43%) taking cues from
Trump’s “successful” overseas tour so far, which saw billions of dollars
in defence contract procurement for various US companies with Saudi
Arabia (Trump really means business !!). Apart from defence &
industrials, US market was also supported by energy shares amid growing
optimism about the OPEC production cut extension for another 9 months
with some deeper production cuts (?).
But global market risk-on sentiment suffered some set back after a
horror terrorist attack in the London-Manchester concert later in the
day. As a result, USDJPY & risk-trade was subdued in the morning Asian
session. Strength in Yen is causing some pressure on the Japanese
market; but optimism of China’s A-500 index inclusion probability in the
MSCI index may be supporting the China market sentiment to some extent.
Overall, yesterday’s sad UK terrorist attack may be or may not be an
isolated incident (ISIS is already claiming its responsibility); but it
may also affect poll prospects of May (UK PM) & the Brexit negotiations.
Already, various recent opinion polls are indicating narrower win for
May, which is affecting the GBP.
Soon after Indian market opening today, market suffered some sharp
selloff despite stable global cues, apparently because of concerns for
GST and NPA policy complexity coupled with overall mixed Q4 report card.
But various market buzz was already there regarding another “surgical
strike” at the PAK LOC and an imminent press conference by the Indian
Army. That may be the primary reason for such sharp selloff in the
opening session today, which was later confirmed by the Govt/Army around
15:00 HRS, just 30 minutes prior to the market closing.
After initial morning selloff today, Indian market recovered to some
extent following positive EU market & upbeat EZ economic data. Also,
some comments by the policy makers regarding NPA ordinance & its
mechanism may have triggered some short covering of the PSBS. But soon
after that, market tumbled again for the day low after Indian Army
announced officially about the Mini-Surgical Strike at LOC with PAK army
posts.
Although, this may be a small artillery fire assaults by the Indian
Army, market may also watch any further action & reaction of both the
countries (Ind & Pak) due to increasing domestic & political compulsion
and audience pressure. Also, being politically stable and Indian market
is hovering around life time high with very little concerns and upbeat
macro economic data, Indian Govt (NAMO) may find it as an ideal time to
keep pressure on the PAK and destroy its terror machines completely,
even if it require a mini-war or frequent such mini surgical strike.
There were already enough indications from the Govt and various stake
holders (FM/DM/HM/Air Force Chief) about India’s hard stance and sudden
attack on PAK at LOC in the recent times, if we follow various
statements from them.
Indian market today was dragged by Adani Ports (adverse HC observation
for its Kerala/ Viziniagram Port), Pharma shares (below expected result
from Taro, a Sun Pharma subsidiary & ongoing concerns of US FDA), PSBS/
private banks (except ICICI), oil & gas and capital goods.
Nifty was supported today by autos such as Maruti (better PV industry
prospect and high demand), Tata Motors, M&M and metals (some recovery in
China metal space)
Looking ahead, market may focus more on the fine prints of NPA
ordinance/latest RBI directives and effect of GST on the economy &
industry/business along with monsoon & Q4 results. As par some
analysts/rating agency, working capital cycle of Indian Inc/business may
be affected for the first few months as a result of GST
disruption/procedural issues.
Overall, today’s geo-political tensions at LOC being not very big in
nature, if there is no further escalation or “war of words”, we can
expect some bounce back tomorrow, provided global cues are stable*;
watch 9360-9330 zone as vital technical support for tomorrow.*
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-m3ULe9oTcVY/WSQ_K_pOynI/AAAAAAAALzo/ybxDBhWa-AgWs4zLHHInSxb9iIWJcLbTwCLcB/s1600/SGX-NF-PATTERN-23-05-2017.png>
SGX-NF
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-WpGZclZpB8g/WSQ_N933EAI/AAAAAAAALzs/e6MtgxgFxm8AE_PHvIWjquNe_vhSeQr9wCLcB/s1600/BNF-PATTERN-23-05-2017.png>
BNF *
*
Article Courtesy By: frontiza.com
<https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FML21-tn3kI/WSRBCJ8zGfI/AAAAAAAALz8/nDmCNBfoYi0f82WyEW11r6dG57he5ZnqgCLcB/s1600/Frontiza-Logo.png>
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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