Market Mantra: 14/08/2017 (09:00)
SGX-NF: 9780 (+42)
For the Day:
*Key support for NF: 9775/9740-9690/9665*
*Key resistance for NF: 9830/9860-9925/9950*
*Key support for BNF: 23800-23600*
*Key resistance for BNF: 24250-24450*
*Hints for positional trading:*
*Time & Price action suggests that, NF has to sustain over 9830 area for
further rally towards 9860/9895-9925/9950 & 10020-10065 area in the
short term (under bullish case scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 9800 area, NF may fall towards
9740-9690/9665-9605 & 9560-9525 area in the short term (under bear case
scenario).*
*Similarly, BNF has to sustain over 24300 area for further rally towards
24450-24550 & 24700-24900 area in the near term (under bullish case
scenario).*
*On the flip side, sustaining below 24250-24150 area, BNF may fall
towards 24090-23800 & 23600-23300 area in the near term (under bear case
scenario).*
As par early SGX indication, Nifty Fut (Aug) may open around 9780,
almost 42 points up tracking positive global cues after NK-US tensions
fades to some extent following reports that both the Govts were engaged
in back-channel diplomacy talk for months despite the ongoing “war of
words” and NK’s missile game.
Apart from Nuke insurance, another reason that US may not attack NK
immediately as a significant number of US citizens are still in NK
captivities and although, Trump may be in “war mood”, the US defence
ministry is still favoring diplomacy over “war-mongering”.
On Friday night, Chinese Prez also called Trump to calm down over NK
issues and advised him not to engage in further “fire & fury and loaded
& locked” types of comments, despite US is putting significant pressure
on China for the IR & trade protection issues as China has failed to
convince NK to come in line!!
Thus, all these along with no further fresh NK tweets from Trump on the
weekend may have been able to calm down the nerves of the market and
subsequently, USD is able to gain some strength despite a subdued US CPI
on Friday weekend and an upbeat GDP from Japan in the morning today
coupled with some subdued China economic data (IIP, Retail sales, fixed
asset investments).
Overnight US market (DJ-30) also closed almost flat around 0.07% higher,
but well off the low tracking reports of NK-US back channel talks
(truce) and a subdued US CPI and some dovish scripts form various Fed
speakers including Dudley.
Basically, market may be discounting now a Fed hold in Dec’17, but start
of a gradual QE/BS tapering from Sep-Dec’17. Thus, a lower Fed rate (US
bank interest), a relatively tighter US job market with decent wage
growth and a lower inflation in the US economy, which is not runaway,
making the overall real US wage growth of around 1% like a goldilocks
situation for the US economy & the market.
A lower USD may be also positive for the US earrings (export income) &
imported inflation and thus any dooms day like correction in the US
market is being seen as a good buying opportunity for the investors,
coupled with steady Q2 earnings so far.
Back to home, Indian market has also opened in positive mood amid
supporting global cues after 5 days of relentless selling coupled with
SEBI “Shelling” and muted report card from some of the frontline blue
chips, we should have some initial short covering today.
But, market may come under renewed pressure after reports that SEBI/Govt
may continue their surgical strike against black money/corruption as
more & more well known cos (Shell), brokerage houses, Bollywood links
and real estate developers are in SEBI scanner for possible money
laundering and BS/PL inflammation including dubidious PE/foreign
investments.
After terrible IIP data on Friday, all eyes may be also on the WPI/CPI
today, to gauze RBI’s concern and the Govt’s complacency over India’s
inflation trajectory.
<https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WyKHlrQBpxA/WZE0Ny-Uu8I/AAAAAAAAMt8/dS1Gv8lCiaQozRi0SWR29HD18k7l8yLyACLcBGAs/s1600/SGX-NF-14-08-2017.png>
SGX-NF
--
Thanks & Regards,
Asis Ghosh
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